ATP Wimbledon Tennis Handicap Betting Preview – Wed 6th July by @DavAulak

Roger Federer v Marin Cilic

This is the first time since Marin Cilic destroyed Roger Federer in the US Open Semi Final in 2014 that these players will face one another. That was the first time Cilic had beaten Federer in his career and I expect the Croatian to give the former World Number 1 a significant examination in this Quarter Final.

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The layers have been impressed with the way Roger Federer has come through the draw, but I am not convinced he is healthy enough to go on and win this tournament. He might not have a better chance to win an 18th Grand Slam title, but Federer knows Cilic is unlikely to be as intimidated by his presence on the other side of the net as his previous opponents have been.

Federer is yet to drop a set here and has rarely been tested since his opening match against Guido Pella. I don’t think that will be the case this time as he faces an opponent who is very comfortable on the grass and has the kind of game that can give Federer plenty to think about.

If Cilic is serving well, Federer could be put under immense pressure through this match and will have to dig deep to overcome a stubborn opponent. However anything less and Cilic’s chances of an upset deteriorate significantly, but I am expecting a competitive four set match in this one. I can see a situation where Cilic might even win this match, but my overall feeling is that these players should have enough to combine over the total games.

HANDICAP BETTING PICK: Over 38.5 Games @ 1.78 with Pinnacle

 

Federer and Cilic

Roger Federer & Marin Cilic

Sam Querrey v Milos Raonic

I didn’t think Sam Querrey would have enough in the tank to recover emotionally from a very important win over Novak Djokovic. However the American surprised me with another big display in beating Nicolas Mahut and now Querrey is looking to extend what is already his best performance at a Grand Slam in his career.

The game is there for Querrey to be successful on the grass, especially when he is serving as well as he has been so far in this tournament. He has looked very good after coming back from two sets down to beat Lukas Rosol in the First Round here and Querrey has proven himself in the past on the grass courts when winning the title in Queens which is generally won by the very best grass court players.

Serving big will give him a chance of beating Milos Raonic in this Quarter Final, but the latter might also have turned a big corner in his career after coming from two sets down to win a match for the first time against David Goffin. The Canadian also has the booming serve which makes him a danger on this surface and he was a set and a break up against Andy Murray at Queens last month which would have given him confidence to take into the tournament at Wimbledon.

Their previous match at Wimbledon in 2012 saw the first three sets all go to tie-breakers and this match has the makings of another tight one. I would expect these players to produce at least four sets and I can’t see too many breaks of serve through the contest which should lead to this number of games being exceeded, especially with the serve that both possess and limited return games.

HANDICAP BETTING PICK: Over 43.5 Games 1.87 with 188bet

 

Tomas Berdych v Lucas Pouille

Both Tomas Berdych and Lucas Pouille had to come through tough five setters in the Fourth Round to reach this Quarter Final, but they should have had enough rest at this point to recover in time for this match. These players will be meeting for the first time and I think both will have plenty of reasons to believe they can move onto the Semi Final.

It is strange to think that Lucas Pouille had not won a main Tour match on the grass courts before Wimbledon. Here he has beaten the likes of Juan Martin Del Potro and Bernard Tomic which suggests the Frenchman is going to be anything but an easy out for Tomas Berdych who has not been the most consistent on the surface since reaching the Final here in 2010.

Berdych was considerably pushed by Jiri Vesely in the Fourth Round and he has only won one of his four matches in straight sets. In half of those matches he would have combined to surpass this number of games and Pouille has impressed with his serving and returning so far this week in what has been a memorable tournament for him.

The question is how much Pouille has left in the tank after needing eighteen games in the final set on Monday to see off Tomic. He will be put under some scoreboard pressure by the Berdych serve, but I think he is good enough to push this one to four sets and that should give these players a chance to surpass this number especially if we see at least one tie-breaker between two players who are serving well.

HANDICAP BETTING PICK: Over 37.5 Games @ 1.91 with Eastbridge Sports Betting Brokerage

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @DavAulak.

 

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