ATP Finals Tennis Handicap Betting Preview – Sunday 20th November By @DavAulak

Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray – 18:00 live on Sky Sports 3

The ATP World Tour Finals comes to an end on Sunday and it is the Final that most would have wanted. The top two players in the World Rankings go up against one another with the trophy and the World Number 1 Ranking on the line.

Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray have won all four matches played so far this week, but I think it is hard to ignore the amount of tennis that Murray has had to play compared with Djokovic. The long winning run does mean Murray is going to believe he can dig deep enough to come through in the Final, but he has twice had to go over three hours to win his matches and yesterday’s Semi Final victory over Milos Raonic came close to four hours on court.

 

Tennis Handicap Betting

Novak Djokovic

Compare that with Djokovic who lost just two games on his way to crushing Kei Nishikori and the former World Number 1 has to be a lot fresher. I do think Djokovic has not been at his very best this week, but his level could be good enough if Murray is fatiguing and I think the Serb has to feel he can outlast Murray much like he has throughout his career.

Matches between Djokovic and Murray have been competitive, but tiredness didn’t help Murray when beaten in four sets by Djokovic in their last meeting at the French Open. I can see the first set being very competitive, but Murray will find it tough to continue finding the strength to win the long rallies these two tend to play against one another. At that point I think Djokovic will take control of the match and come through with a 7-5, 6-3 win.

 

Handicap Betting Pick: Novak Djokovic – 2.5 Games at 1.71 with Pinnacle

 

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @DavAulak.

 

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ATP World Tour Finals Tennis Handicap Betting Preview – Saturday 19th November By @DavAulak

Andy Murray v Milos Raonic

The big serve of Milos Raonic is clearly going to be built up as the potential deciding factor in this match, but Andy Murray has shown he has the tools to blunt that weapon and make the Canadian work hard for a lot of what he earns on the court.

It is Murray who has dominated their head to head this season and even the quicker conditions in the O2 Arena this season shouldn’t concern Murray who has beaten Raonic at the Cincinnati Masters. That is considered the fastest court along with Dubai and Murray was able to break the Raonic serve three times at that tournament and I do think he is seeing the ball big enough to make sure his opponent is not winning as many cheap points as he wants.

The second serve is where Murray will look to make hay and the limited time spent on court on Friday will certainly help him after that long match with Kei Nishikori on Wednesday. There has to be a better performance from Murray on his own serve to prevent Raonic finding a foothold in this match, but he has been solid for the most part this week and knows exactly where to serve to keep his opponent under pressure.

Murray now has seven wins in a row against Raonic and he would have covered this number in the last five best of three set matches he has played against Raonic. You would think the faster surface gives Raonic a chance to penetrate the Murray defences, but I think it takes some time away from a limited returner too and I think Murray will prove too good in the afternoon Semi Final and I will back him to come through with enough of a margin to cover this number of games.

Tennis Handicap Betting Pick: Andy Murray – 3.5 Games at 1.84 with Unibet

Novak Djokovic v Kei Nishikori

It will depend on your point of view as to why Kei Nishikori collapsed from an impressive first set to a three set loss to Marin Cilic on Friday night. Some will think Nishikori just lost his focus and didn’t put in a full effort, while others might point to some fatigue from the gruelling match with Andy Murray on Wednesday with Nishikori having conditioning issues at the back of tournaments throughout his career.

I will admit that I am in the latter camp as Marin Cilic was able to turn the match around by avoiding the unforced errors in sets two and three and forced Nishikori to go much deeper. Novak Djokovic is likely to do the same and Cilic also became the first player to actually have a lot of success against the Nishikori serve which is another area in which Djokovic can succeed in the second Semi Final at the World Tour Finals.

Tiredness is going to mean it is hard to pump the legs to pull out the big serves for Nishikori with that weakness in his game magnified when fatigue is in play. Novak Djokovic has not served as effectively as earlier in the 2016 season, but he should be much fresher and can break down the Nishikori game on his way through to the Final on Sunday.

It won’t surprise me if Nishikori is competitive through the first set, but Djokovic should be able to just drag him into deep waters at that point. Djokovic might have slipped from the standards he has set in recent years, but he has dominated Nishikori over the last twelve months and I can see the Serbian player coming through with a 75, 62 win in this one.

Tennis Handicap Betting Pick: Novak Djokovic – 4.5 Games 2.10 with Bet365

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @DavAulak.

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ATP World Tour Finals Tennis Handicap Betting Preview – Friday 18th November By @DavAulak

Stan Wawrinka v Andy Murray

These two players are meeting for just the second time in 2016 with the first ending in a comfortable win for Andy Murray at the French Open in the Semi Final. Prior to that the last match between Murray and Stan Wawrinka actually came at the O2 Arena last year in a final Group match which saw Wawrinka beat Murray in straight sets and move through to the Semi Final at his expense.

The same could happen this Friday in the first match of the afternoon as a straight sets win will put Stan Wawrinka through to the Semi Final yet again at the World Tour Finals. He is coming in off a much more impressive performance than what Wawrinka could produce in his straight sets loss to Kei Nishikori and the Swiss player will believe he can do enough to win this match.

It will be interesting to see the kind of levels that Murray can produce after struggling for over three hours in his win over Nishikori just two days ago. He has played so much tennis in recent weeks and that match has to have taken a toll on a player that hasn’t faced the top competition in his run of wins in the last month.

Someone like Wawrinka won’t be overawed by playing Murray and bringing his best to the court will give him every chance to beat a tired opponent. The home favourite does need a set to make it through to the Semi Finals, but Wawrinka will be more motivated throughout and I do think he can win this match outright.

However, I think taking the games here might make the most sense at odds against and I like Wawrinka giving himself a chance to win this match at the least. Murray is unlikely to give up or not offer his best, but I do think he could have some fatigue issues and might have preferred coming on in the evening for a few more hours rest.

This has all the makings of a tight match and I do think Wawrinka can be backed with the games to at least keep things competitive in what could be another gruelling match for Murray.

 

Tennis Handicap Betting Pick: Stan Wawrinka +3.5 Games @ 2.18 with Eastbridge Sports Betting Brokerage

 

Marin Cilic v Kei Nishikori

There is plenty on the line for Kei Nishikori as he looks for the win that will be enough to take him through to the Semi Finals. Regardless of what happens in the first match, a win would be enough to take the Japanese player into the next Round, although he potentially only needs a set if Andy Murray has won the match against Stan Wawrinka earlier in the day.

You can’t predict with any accuracy what will be required for Nishikori by the time this match begins, but my personal opinion is that Stan Wawrinka may just get the better of Murray and so Nishikori might be under pressure to earn a win. He does have a strong record against Marin Cilic, although it should be noted that it was the latter who won their most recent match last month in the Final in Basel.

Cilic doesn’t have a lot to play for, but won’t want to head into the Davis Cup Final after losing all three matches in the Group here in London. That should be motivation enough despite being out of the tournament and I do think he will bring in a full effort in this match. The Croatian might also have an edge with the energy he has in the tank after Nishikori was put through the ringer against Andy Murray and spending so much time on court on Wednesday in that loss.

We have seen in the past that Nishikori can struggle with his conditioning and that match with Murray is certainly going to be on that tests what he has left for this tournament. That should enable Cilic to get into this one and he did show in Basel that he can take advantage of the second serve that Nishikori possesses, a second serve that may have a little less on it than usual if Nishikori is feeling the strain of his second match in the Group.

It might also mean Nishikori is not as quick around the court as he was and Cilic has the firepower to drag him out of the tournament with him. I do think Cilic has every chance of winning this match outright, but I will back him with the small amount of games being given to him and look for a competitive match at the least.

 

Tennis Handicap Betting Pick: Marin Cilic +1.5 Games @ 2.27 with Pinnacle

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @DavAulak.

 

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