ATP World Tour Finals London Tennis Handicap Betting Preview – Monday 14th November By @DavAulak

Stan Wawrinka  v Kei Nishikori

The conditions in London look faster than they have been for the World Tour Finals in recent years. It will be interesting to see how the players deal with things in the coming days, but neither Stan Wawrinka nor Kei Nishikori can afford to make a slow start in their adjustments, to what looks a very strong group.

Only two players will go through to the Semi Finals, so the winning player in this one will take a big step towards that, although it is Andy Murray that will be considered the big favourite to go through. It isn’t straight forward though, with Wawrinka and Nishikori both knowing they are capable of beating Murray and so their opening match against one another is going to be very interesting.

It has all the makings of a really tight match and their past matches against one another suggests that will be the case, with one or two key points making the difference. Stan Wawrinka has a definite power edge in the contest, but Kei Nishikori might feel he has the better consistency, although a faster surface should give Wawrinka a little edge, which can make all the difference.

The only Swiss representative in the World Tour Finals has the bigger serve too and that can only aid Wawrinka, although he hasn’t really performed to the standards that saw him win the US Open since that triumph. Nishikori did reach the final in Basel, where the conditions will likely be similar to those in London, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we need to go deep into a third set to separate these players.

I do think Wawrinka can win this one outright if he can serve well, but I will take the games at a decent price and look to him to keep it close, even if he doesn’t quite have enough to take the victory.

Tennis Handicap Betting Pick: Stan Wawrinka + 1.5 Games at 1.94 with 188BET

 

Tennis Handicap Betting Previews

Stan Wawrinka

Marin Cilic v Andy Murray

This was initially a 4.5 game start for Marin Cilic which would have been very appealing, but taking the games at odds against still looks a positive in the second match of Group B which takes place this evening.

Cilic will be battling the home fans, as well as World Number 1 Andy Murray, who is coming into this tournament looking to have a big run in London for the first time.

Both players have been in very good form in the indoor portion of the tennis season and the quicker conditions in London will give Cilic a real chance to upset players in the World Tour Finals. If he is serving well he can get a few short balls from which he can penetrate the Murray defence and he did beat the British player when they met in the quick conditions of Cincinnati.

I don’t think this court will be as quick as Cincinnati or Dubai, but we saw Murray have some issues with the big hitting from Fernando Verdasco and Tomas Berdych when he played those two in Paris. The courts at the O2 Arena are expected to be of a similar speed as the ones in Paris, so Cilic must feel he has the power to break down the Murray defence too.

Murray is going to be very motivated here this week and he has a lot of momentum behind him, having been on a long winning run since losing in the US Open Quarter Final. However he has beaten none of the top eight players in that run and he has lost the last two times he has played those players that have ended in these spots. On the other hand, Cilic has had some big wins since the US Open and I think he will keep this one competitive and I will back him with the games in the pocket.

Tennis Handicap Betting Pick: Marin Cilic + 3.5 Games at 2.32 with Pinnacle

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @DavAulak.

 

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ATP World Tour Finals Tennis Handicap Betting Preview – Sunday 13th November By @DavAulak

Novak Djokovic v Dominic Thiem

The first match at the ATP World Tour Finals is played between what many will consider as still the best player in the world against a youngster who has taken big steps on the Tour this past year. Novak Djokovic has gone into the opening match as a strong favourite to beat Dominic Thiem and recent form does make it seem like the upset could be some way away despite the relatively poor form Djokovic has produced.

That is relative to some of the best tennis I have seen from a player so any drop off doesn’t make Djokovic a poor player, although there are more vulnerabilities these days, or so it seems to be. He has had some disappointing losses to the likes of Roberto Bautista Agut that can’t really be understood barring Djokovic not being close to his best, while the serve continues to be an issue.

I imagine a lot of rest and recuperation will be needed in the off-season and I don’t think Djokovic will play too much tennis between this tournament and the defence of the Australian Open title. There does seem to be an issue with his serve, but I am not sure Dominic Thiem is the man to expose them despite being a big fan of the Austrian.

For any player making the breakthrough to the level Thiem has this season it is difficult to maintain fitness at this time of the season. It has been a long season for Thiem and he hasn’t looked right over the last month with heavy losses to Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Alexander Zverev, Victor Troicki and Jack Sock since reaching the Final in Metz. The loss to Sock in particular came when it looked like Thiem didn’t have a lot left in the tank and the last ten days will have been vital for him to prepare for this tournament both physically and mentally.

The match up would usually be a tough one for Thiem, but it might be even more difficult if he is struggling for fitness. He can definitely make life difficult for Djokovic for a while, but the feeling is that the Serbian player will start wearing him down in the longer rallies even if the courts are playing faster than usual in London. We have seen Thiem drop a few sets with a double break of serve down the stretch and I think Djokovic will eventually get on top of his own service problems to produce a 7-5, 6-2 win to open the World Tour Finals.

 

Handicap Betting Pick: Novak Djokovic – 5.5 Games at 2.38 with Unibet 

 

Tennis Handicap Betting

Novak Djokovic

Gael Monfils v Milos Raonic

This feels like a Group containing some of the more physically hurt players in the ATP World Tour Finals and there are some doubts about what Gael Monfils and Milos Raonic are going to be able to do in London. There is definitely some more worries about the Canadian though and I do think Monfils comes in with a better health.

Raonic played in Paris, unlike Monfils, but he suffered a tear in his left quad that needs rest and puts his whole appearance in London in doubt. However, it does look like Raonic will take his place in the draw for at least the opening match and I do believe the leg issue will mean his serve is perhaps not as dominant as it can be.

That takes away a huge part of the Raonic game and should mean Gael Monfils has every chance to beat him for the second time in a row and even up their 2016 record against one another. Monfils has had plenty of rest since last playing in Stockholm and has been looking forward to his first appearance at the World Tour Finals which suggests he is physically ready to go as he looks to finish the 2016 season in strong fashion.

If it wasn’t for that leg issue for Raonic, I think he would have gone into this match as an even stronger favourite, but I can’t have him as a favourite with the injury as it is. He might be healthy enough to play, but I am sure it is going to factor into what he can get out of his serve and Monfils can take advantage by getting enough balls back in play and win this match as the underdog.

 

Handicap Betting Pick: Gael Monfils + 1.5 Games at 1.81 with Pinnacle

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @DavAulak.

 

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ATP Paris Tennis Handicap Betting Preview – Friday 4th November By @DavAulak

Novak Djokovic v Marin Cilic

Marin Cilic beat David Goffin and confirmed his place in the ATP World Tour Finals which means 2016 is going to end in very strong fashion for the former US Open Champion. Playing in London will be followed by the Davis Cup Final and Marin Cilic might be in a position to add a couple of big trophies to that US Open he won in 2014.

Cilic can’t just be happy to get to London, but surely wants to head to that tournament by winning his second Masters event of the season having done that in Cincinnati in the summer. However, that means snapping a 14 match losing run to Novak Djokovic who looks highly motivated to retain his World Number 1 spot for another week.

Motivation is one thing, but Djokovic’s execution has mainly been very good although there are still signs he is not completely happy with his serve. He dropped the first set to Grigor Dimitrov who also had chances in the second set, but the Bulgarian slipped away in a manner that the in-form Cilic is less likely to do.

However, it is the second long week in a row for the Basel Champion which is a concern, although Cilic won’t have forgotten his humiliation at the hands of Djokovic in the 2015 US Open as the defending Champion. Unfortunately, that was the way matches between these players have gone more often than not and I am going to back Djokovic to find a way to a 6-3, 6-4 win if Cilic is serving as erratically as he did against David Goffin on Thursday.

Tennis Handicap Betting Pick: Novak Djokovic – 4.5 Games at 2.10 with Pinnacle

 

Tennis Handicap Betting

Novak Djokovic

Andy Murray v Tomas Berdych

The head to head between Andy Murray and Tomas Berdych is ‘only’ 9-6 in favour of Murray, but the last five matches have been dominated by the World Number 2 since Dani Vallverdu decided to offer Berdych some advice. The relationship between Berdych and Vallverdu has concluded, but Murray’s dominance of recent matches continues and I can only see one winner in this Quarter Final.

It isn’t easy to dismiss the chances of a regular name in the top ten of the World Rankings, but Berdych has not been in the greatest form of late and he has lost the last 12 sets played against Murray. Add in the fact that he hasn’t won more than three games in any of the last 7 sets and you begin to worry about his chances in this one.

I do think he may have a couple of big chances in this one to break serve and remain competitive as Murray has not been firing at his best this week. He has played a lot of tennis of late and that has to wear down on a player from a mental and physical perspective, but Berdych has also not been as convincing behind serve as he usually is.

A player like Murray is going to get plenty of the big first serves not only back in play, but back in play in awkward positions which begins the rally from scratch and I would expect him to win plenty of those. Murray had an easy day in the office on Thursday which should have allowed him to keep some of the energy required in store for this one and I think he is going to come through with a relatively straight-forward 6-3, 6-4 win.

Tennis Handicap Betting Pick: Andy Murray – 4.5 Games at 1.66 with Bet365

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @DavAulak.

 

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