ATP Paris Tennis Handicap Betting Preview – Thursday 3rd November by @DavAulak

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v Kei Nishikori

Both Kei Nishikori and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga ended up as Runners Up in Basel and Vienna respectively last week, but both seem to have rounded into some nice form to close out 2016. The wins they have earned on Wednesday looked in impressive fashion and that makes this a very good Third Round match for those who will be watching.

It is Nishikori who has gotten the better of Tsonga in previous matches including a really dominating win over the Frenchman at the Australian Open. However these courts might suit the Tsonga game a little more with the heavier serve and big forehand likely to find some penetration on a court which is still on the faster side of the Tour.

Tsonga has plenty of motivation this week as he tries for one last ditch attempt to make it to the World Tour Finals, especially in light of Dominic Thiem potentially being another player who has to withdraw from the event in London. That can be coupled with the court they are playing on as to give Tsonga a chance for the upset win here, although Nishikori’s movement and ability to rally into the backhand is part of the reason he has been able to get the better of this opponent in the past.

Nishikori also holds two wins over Tsonga at the Paris Masters, but both have been incredibly close matches that have needed final set deciders. Those matches were played in 2013 and 2014 and while Nishikori is improved, I think Tsonga might show a little more fight to turn things in his favour and I will back the underdog with the games.

Tennis Hanidcap Betting Pick: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 1.5 Games at 1.98 with Unibet


Tomas Berdych  v Gilles Simon

There are some head to head match ups that surprise you when you see which player is winning- one of the ones that always comes to mind is the way Fabrice Santoro used to baffle Marat Safin and ended with a 7-2 head to head against him. While not to the same level of dominance, Gilles Simon having a 7-5 record over Tomas Berdych has to be considered a surprise.

You would think Berdych would be able to overpower Simon, but the Frenchman has to be one of the most irritating defenders on the Tour with an insane ability to make hundreds of balls without seemingly tiring. Someone like Berdych wants to hit out and having to make that many shots sees him break down and eventually make too many mistakes.

Berdych will have to serve a lot better than he did on Tuesday, but that day off could be crucial as Simon was battling in the evening on Wednesday. We know Berdych will have chances to break serve with even an average returning day, but he didn’t play well in the win over Joao Sousa for long periods and that has to be a concern for him.

I think Berdych is better than he showed on Tuesday and having more time to recover than Simon could be critical as the Czech player tries to extend his run of reaching the World Tour Finals. This will be a battle as it always in when Simon is playing but I can see Berdych getting the better of him over three sets and coming through with a 63, 46, 76 win.

 

 Tennis Handicap Betting Pick: Tomas Berdych – 1.5 Games at 2.07 with Pinnacle

 

Tennis Handicap Betting

Tomas Berdych

 

Andy Murray v Lucas Pouille

There is plenty of motivation for Andy Murray heading into this tournament, but you cannot ignore the huge amount of tennis he has played in recent weeks to get into a position to earn the World Number 1 Ranking. Murray was pushed to the limit by Fernando Verdasco in the Second Round on Wednesday, but you can see how strong he is still feeling by coming through against an opponent who was playing close to his best tennis.

Murray will be battling the fans and Lucas Pouille on Thursday in the Third Round but this has been a good match up for him and I expect the same in Paris when they meet. For all of the improvement made by Pouille over the course of 2016 to finish in the top 20 of the World Rankings, I still think the Frenchman is trying to find the consistency in his game to take the next step forward.

He has particular trouble against Andy Murray in their two previous matches this season and the most games Pouille has won in a set is three games, although that only happened once in four sets competed. The problem for Pouille is that he is not going to get a lot of cheap points from Murray and has some difficulty penetrating the Brit’s defences.

That forces Pouille to go closer and closer to the lines and ends up with some errors in his games that only helps Murray keep control of the match. With Murray’s serve working effectively enough, it is no surprise he has been able to dominate the rallies and Murray has broken the Pouille serve four times in both matches. Doing that here should give him every chance to win this one 64, 62 and I will back Murray to cover the games.

Tennis Handicap Betting Pick: Andy Murray – 5.5 Games at 2.10 with Bet365

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @DavAulak.

 

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ATP Paris Tennis Handicap Betting Preview – Wednesday 2nd November by @DavAulak

Lucas Pouille v Feliciano Lopez

I backed Lucas Pouille to beat Feliciano Lopez when these players met last week in Vienna and it was a very close match that the Frenchman might feel he should have won. With the home crowd behind him this week, I am backing Pouille to have a little more success at the big moments and get the better of Lopez who has already beaten one Frenchman this week.

They had very similar numbers when they played last week with Lopez having a bit more joy on the ace front, and Pouille having a couple more double faults which seemed to make all the difference. It did look like Pouille had built up the momentum to win that match and had the break points in the final set to do so before coming up just short.

It would be wrong of me to suddenly think Pouille shouldn’t be the favourite in this match because of that close loss that could easily have gone his way. He has played with some real quality this season, but it will be important for him to try and take away the big Lopez first serve from what he has learned last week and having the crowd really behind him can give Pouille the motivation to dig in a little deeper.

I won’t be surprised if we need three sets to separate the players again, but this time I think Pouille comes away with a 46, 63, 64 win.

Tennis Handicap Betting Pick: Lucas Pouille -1.5 Games @ 1.80 with Bet365

 

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v Albert Ramos-Vinolas

Losing the Final in Vienna means Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will miss out on a place at the World Tour Finals unless a number of withdrawals are made by players above him in the Race for London. Injuries have affected his 2016 season, but Tsonga can get the better of Albert Ramos-Vinolas again having beaten the Spaniard in the Quarter Final in Vienna last week.

Tsonga dominated the first set, but then began to struggle on serve with too many double faults giving Ramos-Vinolas confidence to try and get back into the match. At home Tsonga can play with a loud crowd behind him which is when he really thrives as a player and I think that can help him record a similar margin of victory as he had against him last week.

The problem for Ramos-Vinolas is that Tsonga should be able to get a very solid swing on the return against his first and second serve. There will be times the lefty serve is an issue for Tsonga whose weakest wing is the backhand, but I think the Frenchman can dominate the rallies with his first strike style and put Tsonga in a strong position in the match.

It would be easier for Tsonga if he is serving better than he was in Vienna, but even a similar level should help him come through with a 63, 64 win and a place in the Third Round.

 

Tennis Handicap Betting Pick: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga -4.5 Games @ 1.93 with Pinnacle

 

ATP Tennis Handicap Betting Preview 02/11

Novak Djokovic

 

Gilles Muller v Novak Djokovic

For the first time since his surprising Semi Final loss in Shanghai, Novak Djokovic is back on the court as he looks to hold onto the World Number 1 Ranking he has had for a couple of years. Djokovic has to reach the Final at least this week if Andy Murray continues his fine form and does the same, but he could have hoped for an easier road into this tournament than the dangerous Gilles Muller.

It has been a solid few weeks for Muller who has reached the Semi Final in Basel and a Quarter Final in Tokyo, but he will need to be at his very best to challenge Djokovic. Two of their three previous matches have been very competitive and I do have to say that this is a Djokovic who might not be at his very best.

He has been speaking about the improvement he is feeling and it looks like Djokovic has been motivated by the fact that Murray has gotten so close to taking the World Number 1 spot. However there are some concerns about the Djokovic serve and whether it is going to be a shot that he can rely upon at big moments and Muller can hit out at times and make a few winners off the return which can help him force a break or two.

Muller has been serving well enough to challenge Djokovic with that shot too and this looks a lot of games to be given to the big serving lefty in this one. At odds against I have to back the games and look for Muller to keep this one competitive even if I am not sure he can actually complete the upset against what sounds like a newly motivated Djokovic.

 

Tennis Handicap Betting Pick: Gilles Muller +4.5 Games @ 1.92 with Eastbridge Sports Betting Brokerage

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @DavAulak.

 

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ATP Paris Tennis Handicap Betting Preview – Tuesday 1st November by @DavAulak

Tomas Berdych v Joao Sousa

Over recent seasons Tomas Berdych has become a familiar face in the World Tour Finals, but he needs a big week if he is going to head to London in the main draw and not as an alternate. He had a tenuous hold of the final place at the World Tour Finals until Marin Cilic won the title in Basel and Berdych can’t afford another early loss this week in the final open tournament of the season.

Berdych won the title in Shenzhen and reached the Quarter Final in St Petersburg having seen injury prevent him from taking his place in the US Open draw. Those results put Berdych in a strong position to finish in the top eight places, but the Czech player has had three opening match defeats since those tournaments mentioned.

This does look a decent chance for Berdych to snap that run and give himself a chance of playing in London for the seventh year in a row. While I have to respect Joao Sousa for getting as much out of his game as he has, Sousa is also someone who struggles to hold his serve and will have difficulties dealing with the big Berdych serve which gives the latter a real edge in the match.

That has happened in their two previous matches against one another with Berdych winning in dominant fashion. The last two losses have been disappointing for Berdych, but Sousa’s own form is sketchy to say the least and I think Berdych can put himself into a position to move into the Third Round behind a 63, 64 win.

Tennis Handicap Betting Pick: Tomas Berdych -4.5 Games @ 2.02 with Unibet

 

ATP Tennis Handicap Betting Preview 0111

Tomas Berdych

 

Feliciano Lopez v Pierre-Hugues Herbert

A lot of Singles players will be chasing the final places at the ATP World Tour Finals in the tournament in Paris, but Pierre-Hugues Herbert will be heading to London to take part in the Doubles tournament. Before that he has come through a couple of Qualifiers to make the main draw of the Singles event in Paris which should keep his World Ranking in a strong enough position for automatic entry into the Australian Open in January.

There is quite a bit to like about Herbert’s game on this surface as he has a decent first serve and his Doubles skills means he is very comfortable getting forward to the net. That could help this become something of an ‘old school’ kind of match with both Herbert and Feliciano Lopez very happy to play some serve-volley tennis to try and pressure the other into making mistakes.

The chip and charge off the second serve is likely to be an effective tool for both players who are going to be in the World Tour Finals Doubles tournament and the player winning the higher percentage second serve points likely wins this match. In that regard you have to favour Lopez who has produced better results as a Singles competitor than Herbert.

The Frenchman will have the home support and won a title on the indoor hard courts at the Challenger level recently as well as having two wins in Paris in the Qualifiers. That will give Herbert confidence for the upset, but I think Lopez will weather the storm and come through a first set tie-breaker before seeing Herbert make a couple of errors on his own service games to lead to a 76, 64 win for the Spaniard.

Tennis Handicap Betting Pick: Feliciano Lopez -2.5 Games @ 2.07 with Eastbridge Sports Betting Brokerage

 

Jack Sock v Philipp Kohlschreiber

He might be up to Number 24 in the World Rankings, but I am still looking for more consistency from Jack Sock to really start proving he can be the face of American men’s tennis. Sock has a solid game, but I think he has too many mental lapses at the moment and there are also some concerns about his physical strength when going deep into tournaments.

He does have some solid results since reaching the Fourth Round at the US Open and I definitely think Sock has shown a little more form than Philipp Kohlschreiber in that time. The Jack Sock loss to Marcel Granollers last week is a concern, but I am going to say that had something to do with reaching the Final in Stockholm before that and he should give a much stronger showing against Kohlschreiber.

It has been tough for Kohlschreiber in recent weeks with a lot of surprising losses as the German has recovered from an injury but perhaps not at full confidence closing out the season. Kohlschreiber is 3-4 in his matches since coming back from a withdrawal at the US Open and I think some of the performances have seen him struggle to deal with the consistency needed off the ground.

The Kohlschreiber serve can be dangerous, but he has not been getting enough first serves in play and that is where Sock has to find a way to take advantage. Sock’s own serve is decent and I think he will be able to back it up a little more than Kohlschreiber and come through in a tight three set match with a 76, 46, 63 win for the American.

Tennis Handicap Betting Pick: Jack Sock -1.5 Games @ 1.81 with Pinnacle

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @DavAulak.

 

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