Norwich v Watford – Carrow Road at 19:45
It’s crunch time for Norwich City as they take on Watford in what could be their penultimate Premier League fixture before returning to the Championship.
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The Canaries are relying on Everton to do them a favour by beating Sunderland as their 1-0 defeat to Manchester United last weekend took Premier League survival out of their own hands. Sunderland also have a better goal difference and so it is likely that Norwich will need all 6 points against Watford and Everton, if they are to have any chance of remaining in the top-flight.
Norwich are 4 points behind Sunderland in the Premier League table and 3 points behind Newcastle who sit just above them, although the Canaries have a game in hand over the Magpies.
Alex Neil’s side are on a poor run of form and have lost their last 4 consecutive games, also failing to find the net in each of those matches. Norwich have really struggled without a prolific goalscorer this campaign as Cameron Jerome has simply not been good enough and the arrival of Steven Naismith from Everton in January hasn’t been as effective as they would have hoped. Dieumerci Mbokani and Nathan Redmond are Norwich’s joint top-scorers with only 5 goals each this season and this statistic really sums up Norwich’s lack of quality and composure in-front of goal this campaign.
Watford are also on a poor run of form and have struggled to keep up their impressive performance from the 1st half of the season. Odion Ighalo who was so ruthless in-front of goal before Christmas hasn’t scored in the league since January in Watford’s 2-1 victory over Newcastle. Despite this, the Hornets haven’t been beaten by a bottom 6 team all season, winning 7 and drawing 3 of their 10 such games.
When you think that Norwich have lost 7 of their last 10 league matches, backing Watford might seem appealing, especially as they are a tasty 4.75 on the 1X2 market with Bet365. Norwich however have more to play for with relegation at stake, with a win for Watford only likely to ensure they finish as the top promoted club as they have already secured their safety. If Watford do manage a win against Norwich however, they do have an outside chance of a top half finish, although it is likely that they would also need to beat Sunderland in their final game of the season to do so.
Last weekend Quique Sanchez-Flores’ side lost 2-0 against Liverpool at Anfield, which was no surprise as the Reds kept up their impressive home record.
In December when Watford last met Norwich at Vicarage Road, the home side came out on top with a goal each scored by Troy Deeney and Odion Ighalo to seal a 2-0 victory. On Wednesday however, I think this will be a close and edgy affair with minimal goals as both sides have been struggling to score of late and therefore I recommend backing under 2.5 goals at 1.95, which looks a decent price.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.95 with Bet365
Prices correct at time of writing.