NFL Week 10 Handicap Betting Preview – Sunday 13th November by @DarkDyson

My trip to Miami was a blast and my first live NFL experience was amazing! The Jets at Dolphins turned out to be an action packed, close game with a thrilling finish.

Thankfully the final score of a game, a 96 yard kick-off return, by rookie Kenyan Drake won the game for Miami. Their four point victory capped a brilliant day out for me and landed last week’s pick of Miami -3.5 at 1.94.

I have found a couple of interesting picks this week, which should see my good form continue this evening.

 

Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Redskins – Fedex Field at 18:00

Washington Redskins…

The Redskins are currently 4-3-1 and three games off the red hot Cowboys in the NFC East. But this prime time division is the most equally balanced in the NFC, if not the entire NFL.

They still have a chance to claim a place in the post season playoffs. Even if the Cowboys go on to confirm their current status of number one seeds in the conference.

The Redskins have a multifaceted offence, which performs best when playing at home in Washington.

Even facing the fearsome Vikings defence this week Kirk Cousins and co, will be confident of claiming a vital fourth win of the season on Sunday.

 

Minnesota Vikings…

The Vikings started the season like a team on fire. Five straight wins so them being touted as potential Super Bowl contenders, not to mention getting crowned as the Team of ATL by everyone’s favourite NFL podcast crew.

However, since returning from their bye week the wheels have come flying off their early season hype train.

Three consecutive defeats have given their NFC North rivals all the encouragement they needed, in the race for the divisional title.

Plus, with two of those defeats coming against the limited quality of NFC North teams, Detroit and Chicago, the Vikings are in danger of total collapse.

 

Match up…

As mentioned the Redskins operate an impressive offence. They rank 19th in TDs per Game, 14th in Points per Game, 6th in 3rd Down Conversion, 4th in Yards per Game and 2nd in Yards per Play.

However, their main failing on offence is a critical one, they struggle badly when in the Redzone. They have so far converted just 40.62% of their visits to the 20 yard line into TDs. This really needs to improve if they want to go deep into the season.

Usually, leaving points on the field is a death knell to all team’s ambitions of winning any game. But this weekend the Redskins might just get away with it.

This is because they are facing a Vikings team which is almost completely devoid of any offence whatsoever.

They rank 26th or worse in virtually all main metrics and in the past three weeks. Plus, they have averaged just 12 Points per Game! When you add in the fact that they could only score 16 points at home against Detroit, one of the weakest Defences in the NFL, you get a vivid picture of how bad this offence really is.

Sam Bradford is not a bad QB. In fact he is pretty good, with a current rating of 99 putting him 7th in the NFL. But, he simply has nothing to work with and very poor protection from his offensive line.

Bradford also ranks 7th in most sacked QBs and with Washington’s Defence ranking 6th in QB Sack’s per Game. He is in for another bruising afternoon on the Gridiron.

The Vikings did show a little more on offence at the end of their latest defeat, when going into a hurry up offence, this is clearly the best option for their limited players and it reduces the pressure & hits on their QB.

However, Washington have a solid defence. Which has only allowed an average of 21.57 Points per Game, since their opening day defeat against the Steelers.

Minnesota’s D should be able to keep the score down as usual but even 14 Redskin points could be enough to win this. That is why I am taking two bets in this match.

 

NFL Handicap Betting Pick: Washington Redskins -2.5 at 2.04 and Under 42 Points at 1.98 with Eastbridge

Finally, some RBs with a good chance of covering their lines this week are –

Jordan Howard on Over 70.5

Melvin Gordon on Over 87.5

LeVeon Bell on Over 84.5

David Johnson on Over 113.5 (Its a big line but still, it is against the 49ers)

Prices correct at the time of writing.

By @DarkDyson

Read More...

Super Bowl 50 Handicap Betting Preview – Sun 7th Feb by @DarkDyson

Carolina Panthers v Denver Broncos – Levi’s Stadium at 23:30 live on Sky Sports 1

Finally, the wait is over and Super Bowl 50 will be kicking off in the early hours of Monday morning for those of us in Greenwich/European time zones. Unfortunately, I am not nearly as excited about this year’s Super Bowl as in recent seasons because this game simply looks like a mismatch to me.

People often talk about how defence wins Championships and indeed it was Denver’s defence that got Peyton Manning to this final game of his career, at Super Bowl 50. Their performance against the Patriots in the AFC Championship game was something to behold, they hit Tom Brady a season high 20 times!

However, New England’s offensive line has been the most banged up all year and the line that got mauled by Denver a couple of weeks ago, has to be one of the worst in Conference Championship history.

Carolina’s offensive line is markedly better than New England’s and even with that woeful line, the Patriots were still able to rack up 336 Total Yards, compared to Denver’s 244. When you add into the mix Cam Newton at QB and the Panthers 2nd ranked rushing attack, it is difficult to see how the Broncos will be able to contain the league’s best offence for long enough to give Peyton a chance to get Denver on the scoreboard.

That is also notwithstanding the fact that Denver’s average offence (18th in Points Per Game), will be up against a Panthers D that ranks 6th in the league for both Opponent Points Per Game & Opponent Yards Per Game.

 

SB50

Peyton Manning and Cam Newton

So, basically I do not think that defence will win this Super Bowl, the Panthers are simply too good and deep on both sides of the ball and in almost every position to lose this game. Even Denver’s wrecking crew of Line Backers, Von Miller and Ware are almost matched by Kuechly and Davis. I would rate the Panther duo on par with the Broncos pair but for Davis’s broken arm.

The one key factor which could potentially swing the match towards John Elway’s team is experience, they have been to the Super Bowl as recently as two seasons ago and have numerous players, not least Peyton Manning who know how to handle the day.

But, will Cam Newton freeze on the biggest day of his NFL career so far, on the biggest stage in sports?

Based on what we know of and have seen from this seasons MVP, I would say it is highly unlikely/virtually impossible that he gets stage fright at Super Bowl 50. In fact I would even go as far as to say that, he is more likely to have his best game of the season on Sunday, than he is to choke.

Obviously, there is only one way I can be betting in Super Bowl 50 but to be honest, price on a spread which has moved quite a long way since the market opened is not great. The Panthers were available with -3.5, but now the spread is -5.5 and though that is not ideal, I expect them to win by at least 7 points.

For an interest elsewhere, I like the look of Cam Newton Over 38.5 Rushing Yards and Ted Ginn Junior Over 44.5 Receiving Yards. Good luck and enjoy the spectacle, if not what could be a very one sided game on Sunday night.

Handicap Betting Pick: Carolina Panthers -5.5 at 2.04 with Matchbook

Prices correct at the time of writing.

By @DarkDyson

Read More...

NFL Conference Championships Handicap Betting Preview – Sun 24th Jan by @DarkDyson

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos – Sports Authority Field at Mile High live at 20:00 on Sky Sports 1

The top two seeds from both the AFC and NFC have progressed to the conference championship playoffs, they now stand one last win away from a trip to San Francisco to play in Super Bowl 50!

First up is the AFC clash between the reigning champion Patriots and number one seeded Broncos in Denver. The media naturally have entitled this as Manning v Brady 17, as the two future Hall of Fame QB’s go head to head one more time, before Peyton Manning retires, as everyone expects.

Despite being the number one seed and having the advantage of playing at home, the Broncos have been chalked up as three point underdogs to claim the AFC Conference crown tonight. To be honest, I think that three point spread is a touch generous.

New England, are getting all their best players back from injury just at the right time and Tom Brady is playing the game at an incredibly high level. Peyton Manning is not and even with the Broncos formidable defence, I cannot see how they will be able to live with a healthy Patriots team.

The one big factor that could swing the balance towards the Broncos is the weather, it is going to be cold, very cold and could snow which is not good news for the Patriot pass heavy offence. Earlier in the season the Patriots lost here against Denver, again in cold and snowy conditions.

However, the Patriots defence has been a strong point for them this season, especially when they were struggling to overcome multiple injuries on their offence. Now, with the likes of Julian Edelman and Sebastian Vollmer returning, the defence should not be under as much pressure to keep the team in games.

Ultimately, these teams are relatively even overall but with Brady playing at a significantly higher level than Manning, I expect the Patriots to get the job done and take another step towards defending their Super Bowl crown.

Handicap Betting Pick: New England Patriots -3 at 1.99 with Matchbook

 

tom-brady

Tom Brady

 

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers – Bank of America Stadium at 23:40 live on Sky Sports 1

The NFC Conference game looks like it could be a close and highly entertaining affair, as two well balanced and high powered teams meet for the first time this season.

Again the difference between these two could well be the QB’s, Carolina’s Cam Newton has this season become virtually unplayable, with records tumbling as he destroys opponents using the full range of passes and devastating, athletic running out of the backfield.

Arizona’s Carson Palmer has himself, played at a near MVP level, but was worryingly under par in last week’s 31-24 win over Seattle. As you might suspect, I think that Cam will be the difference here and he will lead the Panthers to a fully deserved appearance in Super Bowl 50.

However, with injuries to their secondary, the Panthers are susceptible to quality air attacks such as the Cardinals. Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Michael Floyd and David Johnson are sure to have some success downfield against the previously solid Panthers DBs.

In a game where both teams have very strong defences, it seems a little strange to be backing Over 47 points but, Carolina are the league leading offence and when you combine this with their current weakness in the secondary, a high scoring encounter is entirely possible.

Both games should be hugely entertaining and any combination of teams would make a great Super Bowl 50, but the one most neutrals would want to see, has to be New England v Carolina and that is what I think will happen.

Handicap Betting Pick: Split Stake on Carolina Panthers -3 at 1.94 & Over 47 Points at 2.02 with Matchbook

Prices correct at the time of writing.

By @DarkDyson

Read More...