ATP Finals Tennis Handicap Betting Preview – Sunday 20th November By @DavAulak

Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray – 18:00 live on Sky Sports 3

The ATP World Tour Finals comes to an end on Sunday and it is the Final that most would have wanted. The top two players in the World Rankings go up against one another with the trophy and the World Number 1 Ranking on the line.

Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray have won all four matches played so far this week, but I think it is hard to ignore the amount of tennis that Murray has had to play compared with Djokovic. The long winning run does mean Murray is going to believe he can dig deep enough to come through in the Final, but he has twice had to go over three hours to win his matches and yesterday’s Semi Final victory over Milos Raonic came close to four hours on court.

 

Tennis Handicap Betting

Novak Djokovic

Compare that with Djokovic who lost just two games on his way to crushing Kei Nishikori and the former World Number 1 has to be a lot fresher. I do think Djokovic has not been at his very best this week, but his level could be good enough if Murray is fatiguing and I think the Serb has to feel he can outlast Murray much like he has throughout his career.

Matches between Djokovic and Murray have been competitive, but tiredness didn’t help Murray when beaten in four sets by Djokovic in their last meeting at the French Open. I can see the first set being very competitive, but Murray will find it tough to continue finding the strength to win the long rallies these two tend to play against one another. At that point I think Djokovic will take control of the match and come through with a 7-5, 6-3 win.

 

Handicap Betting Pick: Novak Djokovic – 2.5 Games at 1.71 with Pinnacle

 

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @DavAulak.

 

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ATP World Tour Finals London Tennis Handicap Betting Preview – Tuesday 15th November By @DavAulak

Gael Monfils v Dominic Thiem

Both Dominic Thiem and Gael Monfils were beaten in their opening matches on Sunday, although the former showed more of the quality tennis that has taken him into the top eight this season. The problem for Thiem is that he has admitted some tiredness and the way he fell apart against Novak Djokovic, after taking the tiebreaker in the first set, has to be a concern.

Having a day of rest will help Thiem, but the collapse has been something of a feature of his matches down the stretch in what has been a long season for him. He did win the Tie Break Tens competition in Austria, but the regular tennis points have been tough for Thiem and I am not sure he has a lot left in the tank for the remaining days of the 2016 season.

It hasn’t been plain sailing for Monfils either and I was little disappointed that he couldn’t produce more in his loss to Milos Raonic. The Frenchman has some solid results to end the 2016 season, but he has to show a little more tennis smarts to look for the win in this one, rather than entertaining the crowd.

That has been an issue for Monfils through his career, but he has looked more focused in 2016 and I think he can pick himself up from his opening loss. I don’t hold much hope for either of these players to make it through to the Semi Final, but I think Monfils can keep his chances alive for another couple of days by using his athleticism to wear down Thiem over the course of this match.

Thiem admitting he is feeling a little tired would be a worry and I think Monfils can continue the run of straight sets win in this tournament and I will back him to cover the games.

Tennis Handicap Betting Pick: Gael Monfils -1.5 Games at 1.92 with Pinnacle

 

Tennis Handicap Betting

Gael Monfils

Milos Raonic v Novak Djokovic

The favourites have been winning easily so far this week so backing against Novak Djokovic, who is desperate to finish the year with the World Number 1 Ranking, is perhaps a little foolhardy. That is probably even more so when you think that he has dominated Milos Raonic in their previous matches and would have covered this number in their previous two matches in 2016 and three in a row in their best of three contests.

That includes a win in the Paris Masters in 2014 for the loss of just five games, in what are similar conditions to those that the players will be facing in London.

However my reason is that Djokovic might be motivated this week, but he has also still got some issues that need to be resolved. There looks to be a couple of problems with his camp which came to the fore on Sunday, after dropping the first set while the Djokovic serve is still not working to the same level as it was a few months ago. Another problem has been the unforced errors that Djokovic has produced, which is considerably below what we expect from him and these are situations that Raonic can take advantage of.

I was concerned about the leg issue Raonic had and whether that would have an affect on his serve in the opening match. Those were set aside by a huge serving day and the Canadian has a big enough game to give Djokovic something to think about and this looks enough games for Raonic to at least produce the first really competitive match at the Tour Finals.

There is every chance we will need at least one tiebreaker in this one too and a strong serving display coupled with taking some of the chances Raonic gets to break serve, should see him within this number.

Tennis Handicap Betting Pick: Milos Raonic + 3.5 Games at 2.02 with 188BET

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @DavAulak.

 

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ATP World Tour Finals London Tennis Handicap Betting Preview – Monday 14th November By @DavAulak

Stan Wawrinka  v Kei Nishikori

The conditions in London look faster than they have been for the World Tour Finals in recent years. It will be interesting to see how the players deal with things in the coming days, but neither Stan Wawrinka nor Kei Nishikori can afford to make a slow start in their adjustments, to what looks a very strong group.

Only two players will go through to the Semi Finals, so the winning player in this one will take a big step towards that, although it is Andy Murray that will be considered the big favourite to go through. It isn’t straight forward though, with Wawrinka and Nishikori both knowing they are capable of beating Murray and so their opening match against one another is going to be very interesting.

It has all the makings of a really tight match and their past matches against one another suggests that will be the case, with one or two key points making the difference. Stan Wawrinka has a definite power edge in the contest, but Kei Nishikori might feel he has the better consistency, although a faster surface should give Wawrinka a little edge, which can make all the difference.

The only Swiss representative in the World Tour Finals has the bigger serve too and that can only aid Wawrinka, although he hasn’t really performed to the standards that saw him win the US Open since that triumph. Nishikori did reach the final in Basel, where the conditions will likely be similar to those in London, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we need to go deep into a third set to separate these players.

I do think Wawrinka can win this one outright if he can serve well, but I will take the games at a decent price and look to him to keep it close, even if he doesn’t quite have enough to take the victory.

Tennis Handicap Betting Pick: Stan Wawrinka + 1.5 Games at 1.94 with 188BET

 

Tennis Handicap Betting Previews

Stan Wawrinka

Marin Cilic v Andy Murray

This was initially a 4.5 game start for Marin Cilic which would have been very appealing, but taking the games at odds against still looks a positive in the second match of Group B which takes place this evening.

Cilic will be battling the home fans, as well as World Number 1 Andy Murray, who is coming into this tournament looking to have a big run in London for the first time.

Both players have been in very good form in the indoor portion of the tennis season and the quicker conditions in London will give Cilic a real chance to upset players in the World Tour Finals. If he is serving well he can get a few short balls from which he can penetrate the Murray defence and he did beat the British player when they met in the quick conditions of Cincinnati.

I don’t think this court will be as quick as Cincinnati or Dubai, but we saw Murray have some issues with the big hitting from Fernando Verdasco and Tomas Berdych when he played those two in Paris. The courts at the O2 Arena are expected to be of a similar speed as the ones in Paris, so Cilic must feel he has the power to break down the Murray defence too.

Murray is going to be very motivated here this week and he has a lot of momentum behind him, having been on a long winning run since losing in the US Open Quarter Final. However he has beaten none of the top eight players in that run and he has lost the last two times he has played those players that have ended in these spots. On the other hand, Cilic has had some big wins since the US Open and I think he will keep this one competitive and I will back him with the games in the pocket.

Tennis Handicap Betting Pick: Marin Cilic + 3.5 Games at 2.32 with Pinnacle

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @DavAulak.

 

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