DP World Tour Championship 2016 Golf Betting Preview – Thursday 17th November by @herefordrich

DP World Tour Championship 2016 – Dubai at 07:00 live on Sky Sports 4

Last weeks golf

Another blank week I’m afraid as overall yearly ROI drops to +4%. Last year’s haul of +77% was always going to be very hard to match, so here’s hoping we can find a winner this week to ensure we stay in meaningful profit as 2016 draws to a close.

Tournament History & Field

The DP World Tour Championship has been staged since 2009 ever since the European Tour changed it’s annual order of merit scheme to be known as the Race to Dubai. This is the third and final event of the final series and marks the conclusion to the 2016 European Tour season.

Four players are in with a chance of winning the pot of gold that is the 2016 Race to Dubai. Previous DP Tour champions Henrik Stenson and Rory McIlroy are joined by Masters winner Danny Willett and last weeks Nedbank winner Alex Noren as the quartet that can finish top of the tours annual money list if things go their way this week.

This is a reduced field of just 60 with no 36-hole cut and all the big names are here – the above four are ably supported by the likes of Thomas Pieters, Branden Grace, Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Sergio Garcia and Martin Kaymer.

 

The Course

Measuring in a touch under 7,700 yards, the Earth Course is a long layout that unsurprisingly suits the longer hitters. A par of 72 which includes the standard fare of four par 3’s and four par 5’s, the fairways at the Jumeirah Beach Dubai based course are generous and forgiving.

The greens are fast and undulating and many have run off areas that make getting up and down tricky when putting surfaces are missed.

Water is in play on five of the eighteen holes, including the dramatic closing two holes. The 17th is a par three island green whilst the 18th, a par five, has water in play from both the tee shot and the second/third shots – depending on whether or not you go for it in two shots.

The front nine contained the three hardest holes in 2016 (4th, 8th, 9th) as well as the two easiest (2nd and 7th) whilst the 620 yard closing hole mentioned above was by no means an easy birdie – averaging just 4.84 for the week – yet registering 33 bogeys or worse against just two eagles and 80 birdies.

 

Conditions

Hot and sunny as expected for Dubai, but be aware of a consistent 8-10mph breeze all week. Friday PM could see the winds blow 7mph faster than the AM – however with just 60 mean in the field, tee times will be much closer together than the average event.

 

DP World Tour Championship Recent Winners & Key Stats

2015 Rory McIlroy (-21) – DA 37 DD 1 GIR 4 PPGIR 4 Scrambles 8/12

2014 Henrik Stenson (-16) – DA 2 DD 2 GIR 4 PPGIR 19 Scrambles  6/12

2013 Henrik Stenson (-25) – DA 1 DD 7 GIR 1 PPGIR 10 Scrambles 3/4

2012 Rory McIlroy (-23) – DA 23 DD 3 GIR 25 PPGIR 1 Scrambles NA

 

Recommended Bets

Thomas Pieters 36/1 EW with Bet365

Team Europe’s leading points grabber in the Ryder Cup fits the bill for winning round the Earth course. Long off the tee, some previous course form (A T22 last year doesn’t sound great, but he opened with two 69’s) plus he’s won twice on tour this year. Last week in the Nedbank he finished down the leaderboard at T34, but two weeks before in China his top 20 finish in the HSBC really caught my eye. I’ve earmarked Pieters down for a long time to go well here and would have been happy to take anything over 33s for him. What better way to cap off a great year with a win here in Dubai?

 

Golf Betting

Thomas Pieters

Danny Willett 41/1 EW with Eastbridge Sports Betting Brokerage

It has been a quiet time really for the Augusta champion, though there were signs over rounds three and four at the Nedbank that Danny is finally springing back to life after a tough month or two. 13 birdies collected over the weekend on his way to a T11 announced to me that Willett is getting back to the form that saw him finish in the top five here last year. The Sheffield man will win the Race to Dubai with a first place finish here and I’m sure he’ll be going all guns blazing in the city in which he won the Dubai Desert Classic earlier this year.

 

Byeong Hun-An 34/1 EW with Bet365

Benny is long overdue another win after last summers tearaway victory round Wentworth in the BMW PGA. A T10 in Turkey last time out followed some nondescript performances across Asia over the past month or two, suggests the Korean wonderkid might be hitting top form once more. Ben An finished T4 here last year mainly thanks to middle rounds of 68 & 66 plus he also finished inside the top five in the Dubai Desert Classic this year.

 

Victor Dubuisson 90/1 EW with Bet365 (now 50s which is OK)

Enigmatic would be a kind word to describe Victor who is unpredictable in both his personality and golf demeanour week-to-week. At his best he is a a top-class tournament winner, including two final series event victories in Turkey. At his worst he is a grumpy ten handicapper, prone to withdrawing either before or half way through an event. His green in regulation stats in both Turkey and South Africa were superb – confirming his game is in good order right now. Victor also putted well last week, finishing T8 for PPGIR at the Nedbank. Course form here including a T13 and two top 5 finishes on the back of his T3 in the Nedbank last week leads me to believe that top-class Victor is back in town and he can certainly go well this week.

 

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @herefordrich.

 

Read More...

Nedbank Challenge 2016 Golf Betting Preview – Thursday 10th November By @herefordrich

Nedbank Challenge 2016 – Sun City at 06:00 live on Sky Sports 1

Last weeks golf

Picking a winner that is horribly out of form isn’t an easy thing to do, so missing out on Thorbjorn Olesen’s fourth European Tour victory was not that disappointing. What was upsetting was leaving out Li Haotong at 200/1 who played brilliant golf over the weekend to finish comfortably inside the places – a week after this column had tipped him up at 500/1 in China – annoying.

Anyway, all three picks finished in mid table obscurity. Scott Hend raced to a T7 on Saturday before a triple-bogey cancelled out a run of three birdies in a row, whilst Lucas Bjerregaard started and finished brightly, but a stone cold putter during rounds two and three meant he never featured after day one. Kiradech Aphibarnrat never got in the mix, his iron play letting him down all week.

So after two poor weeks we move on to South Africa, hoping we can quickly improve the years ROI which stands at +7.1% for 2016.

 

Tournament History & Field

The Nedbank Golf Challenge was first played in 1981 and has been a co-sanctioned Sunshine and European Tour event since 2013. This is the first year that the tournament has formed part of the European Tour’s final series of events and like last week in Turkey, we have a limited field with no 36 hole cut.

Past winners here include the three men mentioned below as well as high class champions such as Martin Kaymer, Lee Westwood, Henrik Stenson, Sergio Garcia and Jim Furyk.

Stenson and Kaymer feature this week alongside other South African stars Branden Grace and Louis Oosthuizen, as well as other big names Andy Sullivan, Danny Willett, Rafa Cabrera Bello and Alex Noren.

 

The Course

The Gary Player Country Club in Sun City measures in at an eye-watering 7,831 yards, however being situated at altitude means it actually plays closer to 7,100 yards. It is a parkland course described as having narrow fairways and small, bunker-surrounded greens. There are four par five’s and four par three’s making up a traditional par of 72.  

All the long holes come inside the first 14 holes and measure at 569, 596, 547 and 601 yards. These four holes all played within the five easiest holes of the week last time out. Holes 5,6,7 and 8 all averaged above par last year when Leishman won. If you pick needs to birdie the last then you are in trouble as only 16 birdies were recorded here all week – the fourth toughest hole on the course. The 17th also saw the most double bogeys or worse recorded last time out, so it isn’t an easy finish at the Gary Player layout.

 

Conditions

Thursday and Sunday are looking clear but Friday and Saturday’s early forecast suggests some electrical activity could interrupt proceedings. In a reduced field, we should still have plenty of time to get a 72 hole event in though.

Nedbank Golf Challenge Past Winners & Key Stats

2015 Marc Leishman (-19) – DA 12 DD 6 GIR 1 PPGIR 8 Scrambles 16/17

2014 Danny Willett (-18) – DA 24 DD N/R GIR 3 PPGIR 4 Scrambles 18/21

2013 Thomas Bjorn (-20) – DA 5 DD 4 GIR 1 PPGIR 6 Scrambles 13/16

 

Recommended Bets

Charl Schwartzel 22/1 EW with BetVictor (now 21s)

Out of 193 golf bets I’ve placed this year, only four have been at odds of 30/1 or less. This makes this selection of South African Charl Schwartzel go against the grain, somewhat. The simple fact is I think this years Valspar Championship and Tshwane Open winner is great value this week to add a third trophy to his 2016 haul at 22s. Charl has an outrageously good record in his home land in recent times with South African staged event form reading W, T9, W, T5, 2 coming into this week. He’s featured inside the top 10 in seven out eight appearances on this layout and he certainly fits the class act winner profile seemingly needed to win round here. I just cannot see how he doesn’t feature this week and am happy to load up.

 

Golf Betting

Charl Schwartzel

Thongchai Jaidee 51/1 EW with Bet365

Thongchai was right in the mix in Turkey up until a slow weekend saw rounds of 70 and 73 undo the excellent 67 and 66 he opened with. Jaidee has terrific course form here with top ten finishes in all three of his starts at the Gary Player Country Club and he proved in the summer during his Open de France win that he has quickly become a horses for courses type golfer. Now an eight time winner on tour, he won’t be afraid to get the job done on Sunday if in the mix. Finally he was just about the best putter on show in Turkey – never a bad stat to have on your side.  

Kiradech Aphibarnrat 81/1 EW with Betfair

OK, I know – third event running I’ve backed Kiradech – but I promise there’s more to his ongoing selection than pure stubbornness. This is a layout Aphi seems to enjoy having finished T16 and T5 here during his past two outings here and I was impressed by his putts per green and putts per round stats last week in Turkey (16th and 13th respectively) His irons were a little off judging by a greens in regulation stat of 52nd out of a field of 78th, but Kiradech’s short game is clearly in good order, as is his long game off the tee. Sometimes in (golf) betting you need to stay loyal and this is just one of those such instances.

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @herefordrich.

 

Read More...

Turkish Airlines Open 2016 Golf Betting Preview – Thursday 3rd November by @herefordrich

Turkish Airlines Open – Carya Golf Club live on Sky Sports 4 at 09:00

Last Weeks Golf

Without doubt my worst tipping week since this golf column began in late June.

In a field of 78 none of the weeks hopes could finish higher than T30, with course specialist and headline pick Martin Kaymer finished a disappointing T40 and Masters champion Danny Willett finishing 75th! None of the leaders were even on my shortlist, so lets just write Sheshan off as ‘one of those weeks’…..

Still in the green for the year, its time to move on to the European Tour’s end of season jamboree, starting in Turkey.

 

Tournament History & Field

This is just the fourth edition of the Turkish Airlines Open and like the previous three stagings, it forms part of the tours final series of events. This is a limited field in which entry is decided based upon finishing position in the seasons Race to Dubai money list. It is worth noting that due to the small field, there is no 36 hole cut here.

Many leading names have pulled out for various reasons (mainly scheduling) so the likes of Rory McIlroy, Patrick Reed and Henrik Stenson will not be teeing it up this week, despite being on the original entry list.

Danny Willett, Bernd Wiesberger, Andy Sullivan, Tyrrell Hatton and Lee Westwood are the headline names confirmed in the field of 70.

 

The Course

The Montgomerie Maxx was used for the first three stagings of the Turkish Airlines Open.

Sadly this year the event moves down the road to the Carya Golf Club, still in the Antalya region. I say sadly because its always a bit of a guessing game whenever we move to a new layout and after three years at the Montgomerie, there were definitely some trends starting to appear.

The Carya Golf Club is a resort hotel situated on the Antalya coastline and is described online as being ‘inspired by the classic heartland courses found in the UK’ The course website goes on to say tactical approaches are required, ensuring the correct part of the fairway is found to assist players find the right part of the ‘large, undulating and fast greens’

There are many pine and eucalyptus tress that appear to line the fairways, but as with any resort course, I doubt whether it will really be much of a true test to the elite golfers on show this week. I’m expecting a low scoring event, with the winner probably having to shoot around the -18 mark.

A par of 71 and a yardage of 7,127 suggests accuracy might be reasonably important off the tee, but I can’t see any thick rough causing issues this week, so only the most errant of tee shots are likely to be punished. There are three par 5’s of which the 7th is the longest at 605 yards and the 15th the shortest at 503 yards. Strangely the 12th is a par 4 at 505 yards. Three of the four par 3’s are inside the first 8 holes whilst many of the par 4’s are short – only two of the eleven measure longer than 450 yards.

 

Conditions

Temperatures will struggle to top 22c all week but sunny conditions should be in place for the first three rounds. There is a chance of some rain come Sunday afternoon, though hopefully no electrical activity will halt play. Winds will be almost non-existent all week, peaking around 8mph each afternoon.

 

Turkish Airlines Open past winners

2015 – Victor Dubuisson (-22)

2014 – Brooks Koepka (-17)

2013 – Victor Dubuisson (-24)

 

Recommended Bets

Scott Hend 40/1 EW with Bet365

The big hitting Australian has matured into a multiple winner across various tours over the past few years, including winning the co-sanctioned True Thai Classic in March and the Asia Tours Queen’s Cup in June. A T7 place at the recent high quality CIMB Classic followed a 4th at the KLM Open and a T2 at the European Masters to confirm Hend’s place as a true global golfing performer. The Aussie has also won round the tight and fiddly Hong Kong track, so tree-lined layouts certainly don’t psyche him out. Last week saw him finish a lowly T54 at the HSBC Champions, but I expect him to bounce back this week with a strong showing in Turkey.

 

Golf Betting

Scott Hend

Kiradech Aphibarnrat 40/1 EW with Bet365

We backed the Thai man at the recent British Masters, and despite a slow start, Aphifinished T12 courtesy of a closing round of 64. Kiradech has had a quiet-ish season followed that T15 at Augusta, but did finish 5th in the Olympic games recently. The amiable big hitter has recorded at least one top 3 finish in each of his last 7 seasons as a professional but has yet to register one in 2016 – expect that to change during the final series – hopefully this week in Antalya.

Lucas Bjerregaard 80/1 EW with Betvictor

This is the fourth time we’ve backed Lucas this season, having followed him during a T20 and two MC’s previously in 2016. He caught my eye during a closing round of 63 last time out in Portugal, on his way to T12 finish. The Dane has made 6 of his last 8 cuts and appears to be simmering, close to finding his best form once more that last year saw him narrowly miss out on the Hong Kong trophy, losing to Justin Rose down the last. Lucas is a powerful hitter, but seems to enjoy layouts where he can can long irons off shorter par 4’s. I reckon this weeks set-up should be right up his street and he can follow previous champions Dubuisson and Koepka in registering his first European Tour win here.

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @herefordrich.

 

Read More...