NFL Week 9 Handicap Betting Preview – Sunday 6th November by @DarkDyson
The Dallas Cowboys needed overtime to grab a hard fought win over the Philadelphia Eagles last week. But, thankfully they won with a touchdown and the 6 point walk off win landed my Cowboys -4.5 bet!
This weekend’s preview is going up early because I am away this weekend, in Miami! So, it only seems right that I should preview their divisional match with the New York Jets this week.
Plus, I am going to the game, at the Hard Rock Stadium cheering on English Running Back @JayTrain23 (Jay Ajayi) and his Dolphin teammates!
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins – Hard Rock Stadium at 18:00
The Miami Dolphins have endured an up and down first half of the season, but their schedule over the opening 8 weeks has been tough.
Adam Gase’s team have been pitted against the Seahawks, Patriots, Browns, Bengals, Titans, Steelers and Bills. That has to be one of the toughest opening halves to a season for any team this year!
The Seahawks, Patriots and Steelers would all rank in most peoples top five teams in the NFL, while the Bengals, Titans and Bills have won 3, 4 and 4 games respectively.
Consistency has been the issue with the fins, but a quirk of the schedule means that this weekend they play their fourth straight home game.
Although they lost the first one against the Titans, the Dolphins have found some form behind breakout English RB star Jay Ajayi.
Ajayi became only the 4th running back to rush for over 200 yards in two consecutive games, last weekend against the Bills.
This week he has the chance to rewrite history against the Jets, but they currently rank as the best run defence in the NFL, giving up just 74 yards per game.
It is highly unlikely that Ajayi will get close to 200 yards this week, but Miami are building up some good form of late.
New York Jets…
The Jets season has been a massive disappointment, especially to @DanHanzus and his Dad lol! But, back to back wins over the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns had lifted Gang Green back toward the playoff picture.
However, beating the Ravens at home and then winning in Cleveland, is not really much to get excited about. Particularly when they trailed at half time in both games!
Sure, it is always good to make adjustments and win from behind, but the Ravens and Browns are not known for being able to close out games at the best of times.
Plus, with Ryan Fitzpatrick in at QB the Jets are always likely to struggle moving the ball, while also turning it over.
On defence they can stop the run, but their secondary is vulnerable in the passing game and facing Jarvis Landry on Sunday could well be too much for them.
Stats Match Up…
As mentioned the strengths on these teams currently lies in the running game, on offence for the hosts and defence for the visitors.
Miami rank 7th in Rushing Yards per Game and 2nd in Rushing Yard per Attempt, while the Jets rank 1st in Opponent Rush Yards per Game and 2nd in Opponent Rush Yards per Attempt.
This unstoppable force against an immovable object scenario should give Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill the chance to air the ball out.
This may or may not be a good thing because Tannehill is a very inconsistent QB, but they do rank 5th in the NFL in Yards per Pass and the Jets do give up big plays.
The Jet’s offence has not been the same since Eric Decker went down injured, they currently rank 28th in Points per Game. Add to this Miami’s rank of 21st and the potential for the Jay Train to be slightly derailed this weekend.
So, it looks like a tough, low scoring divisional battle under the Florida sun this weekend, but both teams have been scoring a lot more points in recent weeks.
The Dolphins have notched 58 points in the previous two weeks, while the Jets claimed 55 in their two recent victories.
These stats get confused further when you look at both teams Redzone TD conversion rates, the Jets score on 41.38% of their trips to the Redzone, while Miami are not much better at 47.62%.
For perspective, this ranks the Jets and Dolphins at 30th and 26th in the NFL respectively. Ultimately, it puts me off the Points Total line of 44, as it could quite easily go either way.
In my opinion the Dolphins deserve a lot of credit for beating the Steelers and Bills these past two weeks and playing at home again gives them a real edge over a poor Jets team.
The Jets are not even as good as their 3-5 record and both recent wins could easily have been defeats.
As I will be at the game, supporting our English star running back in his quest for immortality, I am glad that the stats and price have leaned towards the Dolphins getting their 5th W on the board.
NFL Hanidcap Betting Pick: Miami Dolphins -3.5 at 1.94 (including OT) with Eastbridge
Prices correct at the time of writing.