1

NFL Week 9 Handicap Betting Preview – Sunday 6th November by @DarkDyson

The Dallas Cowboys needed overtime to grab a hard fought win over the Philadelphia Eagles last week. But, thankfully they won with a touchdown and the 6 point walk off win landed my Cowboys -4.5 bet!

This weekend’s preview is going up early because I am away this weekend, in Miami! So, it only seems right that I should preview their divisional match with the New York Jets this week.

Plus, I am going to the game, at the Hard Rock Stadium cheering on English Running Back @JayTrain23 (Jay Ajayi) and his Dolphin teammates!

 

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins – Hard Rock Stadium at 18:00

Miami Dolphins…

The Miami Dolphins have endured an up and down first half of the season, but their schedule over the opening 8 weeks has been tough.

Adam Gase’s team have been pitted against the Seahawks, Patriots, Browns, Bengals, Titans, Steelers and Bills. That has to be one of the toughest opening halves to a season for any team this year!

The Seahawks, Patriots and Steelers would all rank in most peoples top five teams in the NFL, while the Bengals, Titans and Bills have won 3, 4 and 4 games respectively.

Consistency has been the issue with the fins, but a quirk of the schedule means that this weekend they play their fourth straight home game.

Although they lost the first one against the Titans, the Dolphins have found some form behind breakout English RB star Jay Ajayi.

Ajayi became only the 4th running back to rush for over 200 yards in two consecutive games, last weekend against the Bills.

This week he has the chance to rewrite history against the Jets, but they currently rank as the best run defence in the NFL, giving up just 74 yards per game.

It is highly unlikely that Ajayi will get close to 200 yards this week, but Miami are building up some good form of late.

 

NFL Handicap Betting

Jay Ajayi

New York Jets…

The Jets season has been a massive disappointment, especially to @DanHanzus and his Dad lol! But, back to back wins over the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns had lifted Gang Green back toward the playoff picture.

However, beating the Ravens at home and then winning in Cleveland, is not really much to get excited about. Particularly when they trailed at half time in both games!

Sure, it is always good to make adjustments and win from behind, but the Ravens and Browns are not known for being able to close out games at the best of times.

Plus, with Ryan Fitzpatrick in at QB the Jets are always likely to struggle moving the ball, while also turning it over.

On defence they can stop the run, but their secondary is vulnerable in the passing game and facing Jarvis Landry on Sunday could well be too much for them.

Stats Match Up…

As mentioned the strengths on these teams currently lies in the running game, on offence for the hosts and defence for the visitors.

Miami rank 7th in Rushing Yards per Game and 2nd in Rushing Yard per Attempt, while the Jets rank 1st in Opponent Rush Yards per Game and 2nd in Opponent Rush Yards per Attempt.

This unstoppable force against an immovable object scenario should give Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill the chance to air the ball out.

This may or may not be a good thing because Tannehill is a very inconsistent QB, but they do rank 5th in the NFL in Yards per Pass and the Jets do give up big plays.

The Jet’s offence has not been the same since Eric Decker went down injured, they currently rank 28th in Points per Game. Add to this Miami’s rank of 21st and the potential for the Jay Train to be slightly derailed this weekend.

So, it looks like a tough, low scoring divisional battle under the Florida sun this weekend, but both teams have been scoring a lot more points in recent weeks.

The Dolphins have notched 58 points in the previous two weeks, while the Jets claimed 55 in their two recent victories.

These stats get confused further when you look at both teams Redzone TD conversion rates, the Jets score on 41.38% of their trips to the Redzone, while Miami are not much better at 47.62%.

For perspective, this ranks the Jets and Dolphins at 30th and 26th in the NFL respectively. Ultimately, it puts me off the Points Total line of 44, as it could quite easily go either way.

In my opinion the Dolphins deserve a lot of credit for beating the Steelers and Bills these past two weeks and playing at home again gives them a real edge over a poor Jets team.

The Jets are not even as good as their 3-5 record and both recent wins could easily have been defeats.

As I will be at the game, supporting our English star running back in his quest for immortality, I am glad that the stats and price have leaned towards the Dolphins getting their 5th W on the board.

NFL Hanidcap Betting Pick: Miami Dolphins -3.5 at 1.94 (including OT) with Eastbridge

Prices correct at the time of writing.

By @DarkDyson

Read More...

NFL Week 8 Handicap Betting Preview – Monday 31st October by @DarkDyson

I got the show on the road last week, in the most bizarre circumstances I think I have ever seen in the NFL.

Seattle and Arizona played out an absorbing defensive encounter. Which the Cardinals will still be wondering how they failed to win.

However, the unusual site of a 6-6 tie between these two potential contenders was great news for me. Having back the Seahawks +2 at 1.88.

This week I am looking at the huge, prime time NFC East clash between the Cowboys and the Eagles.

 

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys – AT&T Stadium at 00:30 live on Sky Sports 1

Dallas Cowboys…

There is always some kind of drama going on down in Dallas. That is just the way owner Jerry Jones seems to like it.

When polarising veteran QB Tony Romo was ruled out for around 10 weeks in the Cowboys final pre-season game, it blew up the NFL news world. Seemingly taking the Cowboys chance of success this year with it.

Fast forward seven weeks and due to the calm, collected and hugely impressive performances of rookie QB Dak Prescott. Talk around the NFL is now all about, should Romo even be considered the number one QB anymore!

As a Bears fan, I would love to pick our starting QB from either Romo or Prescott!

As good as Prescott has been so far, their other rookie, RB Ezekiel Elliot has perhaps been even more impressive. He is on a run of four straight 100+ rushing games, including last week’s 157 yards against the top run defence in the league.

When you combine this with receiving threats Cole Beasley, Jason Witten and soon to return Dez Bryant. Not to mention a top three offensive line, you can see why Dallas are one of the best NFL offences.

The Eagles defence will clearly have their hands full on Sunday night (Monday AM for the UK).

 

Dak Prescott

Philadelphia Eagles…

The Eagles are another team that has benefitted from exceptional rookie QB play. Their number 2 overall pick in the 2016 draft, Carson Wentz has hit the ground (or air if you prefer) running.

Philadelphia got off to a flying start with three wins with their new franchise QB under centre and their defence playing well.

But, it seemed like the bye week took some of their momentum away, as they lost close games at Detroit and Washington.

However, they arrested the slide last week when hosting the then undefeated Minnesota Vikings. With Dallas threatening to run away with the division. The Eagles will be desperate to win this match but I don’t think they will.

 

Match Up…

So far this season the Eagles have played the Browns, Bears, Steelers, Lions, Redskins and Vikings.

These teams offensive rankings in terms of Yards per Game reads, 17, 16, 11, 18, 6 and 31, while the Cowboys are number 3.

These same five teams rank in terms of Points per Game are, 27, 32, 12, 11, 17 and 19, while the Cowboys are 7th.

The Eagles D are just not ready to handle this Dallas offence, especially in the AT&T stadium, but can they score enough points to balance it up?

Unfortunately, for young Wentz and his fans, the Philadelphia offence lacks a quality ground game, making them one dimensional.

Their leading rusher so far this season is Ryan Matthews, who has a pedestrian 262 yards so far this year!

So, they are forced to rely on the passing game, which is not that great either. They are ranked 29th in the NFL in terms of Yards per Game. However, that stat looks even worse when the Eagles are playing on the road, where both Chicago and Washington held them to under 200 passing yards.

Of course the game is much more than just yards gained, ask the Cardinals about that from last week.

Converting scoring chances into TDs in the Redzone, is what ultimately wins games and sadly the Eagles are not great at this either.

They have so far converted 50% of their RZ visits into TDs, which puts them 19th in the league. While Dallas are converting 65% of theirs. This puts the home team up, as the 7th best in the league for taking their chances to score TDs.

The line for this match is currently Cowboys -4.5. At an odds against price I am more than happy to back this. Plus, I would not put anyone off backing them on bigger lines as well, if you are feeling brave.

 

NFL Handicap Betting Pick: Dallas Cowboys -4.5 at 2.09 (Including OT) with Eastbridge

It has been awkward trying to recommend my RB Rushing Yards bets because the lines do tend to come out quite late. I will try and Tweet out the lines for my two favourite picks this weekend. Both these guys should get relatively low yard lines from books this week, so could be great options to get involved with.

LaGarrette Blount

Spencer Ware

Prices correct at the time of writing.

By @DarkDyson

Read More...
1