My trip to Miami was a blast and my first live NFL experience was amazing! The Jets at Dolphins turned out to be an action packed, close game with a thrilling finish.
Thankfully the final score of a game, a 96 yard kick-off return, by rookie Kenyan Drake won the game for Miami. Their four point victory capped a brilliant day out for me and landed last week’s pick of Miami -3.5 at 1.94.
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I have found a couple of interesting picks this week, which should see my good form continue this evening.
Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Redskins – Fedex Field at 18:00
The Redskins are currently 4-3-1 and three games off the red hot Cowboys in the NFC East. But this prime time division is the most equally balanced in the NFC, if not the entire NFL.
They still have a chance to claim a place in the post season playoffs. Even if the Cowboys go on to confirm their current status of number one seeds in the conference.
The Redskins have a multifaceted offence, which performs best when playing at home in Washington.
Even facing the fearsome Vikings defence this week Kirk Cousins and co, will be confident of claiming a vital fourth win of the season on Sunday.
The Vikings started the season like a team on fire. Five straight wins so them being touted as potential Super Bowl contenders, not to mention getting crowned as the Team of ATL by everyone’s favourite NFL podcast crew.
However, since returning from their bye week the wheels have come flying off their early season hype train.
Three consecutive defeats have given their NFC North rivals all the encouragement they needed, in the race for the divisional title.
Plus, with two of those defeats coming against the limited quality of NFC North teams, Detroit and Chicago, the Vikings are in danger of total collapse.
As mentioned the Redskins operate an impressive offence. They rank 19th in TDs per Game, 14th in Points per Game, 6th in 3rd Down Conversion, 4th in Yards per Game and 2nd in Yards per Play.
However, their main failing on offence is a critical one, they struggle badly when in the Redzone. They have so far converted just 40.62% of their visits to the 20 yard line into TDs. This really needs to improve if they want to go deep into the season.
Usually, leaving points on the field is a death knell to all team’s ambitions of winning any game. But this weekend the Redskins might just get away with it.
This is because they are facing a Vikings team which is almost completely devoid of any offence whatsoever.
They rank 26th or worse in virtually all main metrics and in the past three weeks. Plus, they have averaged just 12 Points per Game! When you add in the fact that they could only score 16 points at home against Detroit, one of the weakest Defences in the NFL, you get a vivid picture of how bad this offence really is.
Sam Bradford is not a bad QB. In fact he is pretty good, with a current rating of 99 putting him 7th in the NFL. But, he simply has nothing to work with and very poor protection from his offensive line.
Bradford also ranks 7th in most sacked QBs and with Washington’s Defence ranking 6th in QB Sack’s per Game. He is in for another bruising afternoon on the Gridiron.
The Vikings did show a little more on offence at the end of their latest defeat, when going into a hurry up offence, this is clearly the best option for their limited players and it reduces the pressure & hits on their QB.
However, Washington have a solid defence. Which has only allowed an average of 21.57 Points per Game, since their opening day defeat against the Steelers.
Minnesota’s D should be able to keep the score down as usual but even 14 Redskin points could be enough to win this. That is why I am taking two bets in this match.
NFL Handicap Betting Pick: Washington Redskins -2.5 at 2.04 and Under 42 Points at 1.98 with Eastbridge
Finally, some RBs with a good chance of covering their lines this week are –
Jordan Howard on Over 70.5
Melvin Gordon on Over 87.5
LeVeon Bell on Over 84.5
David Johnson on Over 113.5 (Its a big line but still, it is against the 49ers)
Prices correct at the time of writing.