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UFC 205 Betting Preview – Sunday 13th November By @J_RKeith

UFC 205 – Madison Square Garden, NYC at 03:00 live on BT Sport 2

When it comes to UFC I normally just do one match-up, but seeing this is one of the biggest events in the sport’s history, and the first time it will be aired in New York, I will be covering all three title fights for my latest betting recommendation.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk v. Karolina Kowalkiewicz

The night kicks off with the first title fight in the women’s Strawweight division as it is a clash of Poland. Champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk takes on 31-year-old Karolina Kowalkiewicz as one of these fighter’s unbeaten record will come to an end.

Jedrzejczyk’s last fight was against one of her fiercest opponents in Claudia Gadelha and it started off on the back foot with the Brazilian looking on top, yet as the fight went on the Polish scrapper grew into it and showed her experience.

Since winning the title back in March 2015, she has retained it three times and has put herself across as a fighter not to be messed with. Her victory against Jessica Penne was a perfect example of this. Domination at its best.

Karolina, meanwhile, looked very impressive against Rose Namajunas. When she clinched with the American we saw her really make a difference (her knee shots were brutal) and from there it was a different show. However, she seemed quite weak on the floor and that is a strong side of the current champ.

In their head to head at the UFC 205 Conference, Kowalkiewicz reacted to the headbutt by the current champ and I just don’t know whether this will get under her skin. It looked heated! Expect a quality fight (maybe fight of the night) but I don’t see this being a quick bout in the ring. Joanna for the win!

Betting Recommendation: Joanna Jedrzejczyk by Decision or Technical Deicsion at 1.91 with Betvictor

 

Tyron Woodley v Stephen Thompson

Next on the card is new Welterweight champion Tyron Woodley facing number two ranking Stephen Thompson, as Woodley will want to make it two wins on the bounce after spending a year and a half out of the Octagon.

Woodley’s last bout ended in an impressive KO against former champion Robbie Lawler. People were expecting the experience of Lawler to do the business, but a sharp right-hook tagged the champion and the 34-year-old followed up with a combo of hits in the first round ending the champion’s reign at the top.

To be fair I haven’t seen much of Stephen Thompson, but am hearing good things from this American kickboxer. The 33-year-old has only lost once in his professional career, while remaining unbeaten in his kickboxing career after 57 bouts.

Very effective fighter with his kicks and, like Woodley, a deadly striker in the Octagon. He has a few tricks up his sleeve and can really push Woodley into the corner and pick apart his opponent. Yet, the striking force of the current champ from a standing position into a full sprint is terrifying.

I reckon we may be hearing “and new…” this Sunday, mainly because I think Thompson has that experience and ability to pull this fight out of the bag and clinch the title.

Betting Recommendation: Stephen Thompson by KO, TKO, Submission or Disqualification at 2.10 with Bet365

 

Betting

Conor McGregor

Eddie Alvarez v Conor McGregor

Now, the main event! Lightweight champion Eddie Alvarez takes on the Notorious one Conor McGregor as the Irishman continues his climb up the UFC rankings and carry on his plan to dominate the division.

I saw the UFC 205 Press Conference on Thursday and I wasn’t impressed. Too much acting, weak insults and pretend chair throwing. Seemed to be getting a bit too big for its boots, but it did make me laugh.

Eddie Alvarez is the current lightweight champ and loves a slugger-fest. Pushing his opponent into the corner and laying punches to the head, and much like other fighters pushes off to hit a deadly combo. Just up to McGregor to defend against this and keep his distance from the 32-year-old.

The Jiu-jitsu fighter has won 28 of his 32 bouts, with 15 by KO. The American’s last bout was against former champions Rafael Dos Anjos who he destroyed through TKO in the first round, as Alvarez has won three on the bounce since his last defeat.

But where do you go when ‘Mystic Mac’ predicts a round one KO? Do I recommended that? One thing for sure is that this will be a great fight. Looking forward to seeing how McGregor advances from his five round bout with Nate Diaz and dropping back down a weight division for his next opponent.

Furthermore, his quick combos will be interesting against a slugger in Alvarez and whether he carries on with a kicking game and if McGregor keeps the champion at a distance.
Five of the Irishman’s last seven bouts have claimed ‘Fight of the Night’ with two claiming ‘Performance of the Night’, so expect something interesting for the main event in Madison Square Gardens.

I’m backing McGregor, and I want to say: “Have I been wrong yet?!” but I won’t get ahead of myself.

Betting Recommendation: Conor McGregor KO, TKO, Submission or Disqualification at 2.00 with Betfair

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @J_RKeith

 

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Conor McGregor v Nate Diaz UFC 202 Preview – Sun 21st August by @J_RKeith

Conor McGregor v Nate Diaz – T-Mobile Arena at 03:00 live on BT Sport 2

Bad Blood. That’s what this highly anticipated rematch is called due to the hatred shown between both fighters as Conor McGregor will look to set the record straight as he goes head-to-head with Nate Diaz in their rematch at UFC 202 on Sunday morning.

Their most recent press conference said it all about the amount of disrespect each fighter has for one another. Nate Diaz leaving the conference giving McGregor the finger and then cans and bottles got thrown with McGregor losing his rag before being escorted off the stage. After that, the Irishman was left fuming while Diaz went out and took pictures with fans and relaxing ahead of this massive fight.

So let’s take you back to UFC 196. A battle that I predicted McGregor would do the business against a fighter who had ten days notice to prepare for this main event bout, but how wrong I was. Considering the Notorious One was landing heavy hits on Diaz, busting up his right eye, he couldn’t take the American down. He wanted to land that uppercut so badly, yet Diaz was resilient.

After the first round the 28-year-old started smiling at the cameras, engaging with the crowd, and in his own words wasn’t listening to his trainer John Kavanagh about how to advance in this fight. He didn’t go for the kill and Diaz capitalised.

The 31-year-old landed a clean left hook dazing the Irishman before hitting him with a few more combinations, Stockholm slaps and then submitting the favourite into a rear-naked choke for the tap.

It was an upset. McGregor was left on the floor and Diaz showed the world what a fighter he truly was. On top of this, he collected Performance of the Night and Fight of the Night with the submission.

 

UFC 202

Conor McGregor & Nate Diaz

But now this is it, a chance for McGregor to redeem himself on a card which doesn’t really offer anything except this fight.

In preparation for this rematch, the Irishman has brought in an Irish boxer who is the same height and build to Diaz as well as being a southpaw like the American, so he is understanding what are the best methods of attack and ways to gain an advantage. However, the current Featherweight Champion did mention that he will not change his game plan from the first bout, which could be a problem, stating that he just needs to remain more focused.

With Diaz, he seems relaxed and has his entourage constantly with him, which is a good sign, and considering he didn’t have a camp for the first fight he will be even more prepared for this bout.

For McGregor, that was his first defeat in the UFC and his third in his career, so it will be good to see how he bounces back from that. Overall, 17 of his fights have ended in knockouts with only one going to decision.

Diaz, however, holds a record of 19 wins and ten defeats in his career with 12 of those being through submission, and now sits two bouts unbeaten since his defeat to Rafael Dos Anjos.

I literally cannot wait for this. I honestly think we have a bout for Fight of the Year. There is so much hatred between these two, yet they cannot let this get in the way of their game-plan. That is why I think Diaz will take the win here. We’ve seen him so relaxed compared to a McGregor who rarely loses his head and is now in the process of being pushed over the edge. I wouldn’t be surprised at a Nate Diaz victory.

Betting Recommendation: Nate Diaz by KO, TKO, Submission or Disqualification @ 2.60 with Bet365 

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @J_RKeith

 

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Conor McGregor v Nate Diaz UFC 196 Preview – Sun 6th March by @J_RKeith

Conor McGregor v Nate Diaz UFC 196 – Live on BT Sport 1 at 01:00

Here we go! UFC 196 has come around fast, and it is time for UFC Featherweight Champion Conor McGregor to make his step up against a last-minute opponent Nate Diaz on Saturday night in Las Vegas.

McGregor heads into this fight being the life and soul of UFC, after his knock-out against the former UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo in 13 seconds claiming the title and performance of the night.
The Irish fighter now sits 19-2, having remained unbeaten in his last 15 professional fights. His last defeat coming against Joseph Duffy in 2010.

 

mcgregor diaz

Conor McGregor & Nate Diaz

However, this will be the first fight for McGregor at Lightweight after dominating the Featherweight division. He was set on fighting current Lightweight champion Rafael Dos Anjos at UFC 196, but the Brazilian pulled out due to a broken foot.

This hasn’t been the first time a fighter has pulled out on short notice against ‘The Notorious One’ adding to the list Jose Aldo, but it’s about recovering well and finding out vital information about a brand new opponent within a couple of weeks.

The 27-year-old is a very fluid fighter, in the Octagon he’s loose and has a lightening strike. On top of this, he loves to get off to a great start and get the crowd going, much like his fights against Dustin Proirier and Chad Mendes; running in and unleashing a spinning-heel kick. This is why he’s won performance of the night five times in a row.

His opponent, on the other hand, isn’t the sort of fighter who will lie down and take the abuse from Conor McGregor, as Nate Diaz has had his fair share of pops at the Irishman and bouts in the Octagon too.

The 30-year-old holds a record of 18-10 with his last fight ending in a victory against Michael Johnson on the ‘Dos Anjos v. Cerrone 2’ undercard, and claiming Fight of the Night.
The last time The California born fighter lost was against Josh Thomson through TKO in 2013, but the 30-year-old has never gained momentum with wins, losing every other fight.

But Diaz is not a newbie to the Lightweight division having fought the likes of Donald Cerrone, Marcus Davis and Takanori Gomi. All fights that have been noticed for UFC and rewarded as stand-outs.
The Lightweight fighter even fought champion Dos Anjos on the ‘dos Santos v. Miocic’ undercard. After not making the weight, his competitor won through unanimous decision after three five minute rounds.

In the press conferences, Diaz has had a lot to say to the 27-year-old. But you also see an advantage with height and reach with Diaz, considering in the last face-off the competitor crouched and forced McGregor to react to his stance.

Previous fights for these two show that McGregor likes to finish off his bouts quick, with three of his last five ending after one round. While 11 of Diaz’s fights have gone down to decision after fighting the full three rounds. So I’m not expecting a quick knock-out, but on two weeks’ notice expect Diaz to struggle further on into the fight and McGregor to pick up the pieces.

Asian Handicap Recommendation: Over 1.5 rounds @ 1.90 with Bet365

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @J_RKeith 

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