We’re coming to the end of the US Open. But that has not stopped @DavAulak giving us his Tennis Handicap Betting Recommendation in the WTA US Open Final.
Angelique Kerber v Karolina Pliskova
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Here’s what I had written about Karolina Pliskova on the first day of the tournament that I have extracted here:
“The likes of Sam Stosur (2011) and Flavia Pennetta (2015) have won titles at Flushing Meadows. Doubt they many backers when they did. The three years in between have been dominated by Serena Williams. Yet, this is a tournament that can see a surprise winner and the big prices that perhaps appeal the most are Petra Kvitova and Karolina Pliskova who have had solid summers.
I don’t think either player can be massively trusted. If they can build some steam up in the tournament and Serena Williams is shocked in the First Round, you never know. Pliskova has a terrible Grand Slam record, but I have a feeling she is the kind of player who will suddenly put seven wins together and her tournament success in Cincinnati has to be respected.”
Now, I don’t know about you. I think the last two weeks have basically backed up my feelings about her pre-tournament. However, I am not sure she will go on and win the seventh match I had suggested. The success in Cincinnati included a win over Angelique Kerber in the Final when she dropped just four games, and Pliskova has been serving well enough to think she can beat any player on the WTA Tour.
So far she has handled the nerves so impressively that Pliskova has to be respected in this Final, but I am not sure if she will eventually betray her feelings. The win over Serena Williams was very impressive, but the former World Number 1 might not have been at 100% and the Pliskova serve is likely to be tested by the ability the eventual new World Number One.
While the manner of her defeat to Pliskova will play a part in this one. I think Kerber was coming in much more physically affected after three long weeks on the Tour. Kerber has not dropped a set in the tournament and that should mean she is going to be able to run as much as she needs to as she tries to break down the Pliskova serve.
There is a clear edge for Pliskova from the serve, yet Kerber is the better player when the rallies are extended. She has the experience edge thanks to her two previous GS Finals in 2016. I think that is going to be important for her. At some point Pliskova is going to realise the situation she is in. However, I think at that point things will begin to get tight for her.
Matches between these players have been competitive. I am looking for Kerber to underline her position as the new World Number One. Looking at a 7-5, 4-6, 6-3 win.
HANDICAP BETTING PICK: Angelique Kerber – 2.5 Games @ 1.95 with Eastbridge Sports Betting Brokerage
Prices correct at time of writing.