I didn’t do too well with my last Asian Handicap Betting Preview in Serie A. Fair to say, I thought Palermo would hold out against Napoli. That’s going to change this week as I honestly think I can score some profit in this Serie A clash between Sampdoria and AC Milan.
[expand title=”Read More…” swaptitle=”Hide” trigpos=”below” rel=”star-highlander” ]
The hosts seem to be doing better than expected, looking at their squad. Two fairly comfortable games at the start of the season has pushed them up to fifth, but then again they were unlucky not to secure a point in their last encounter against AS Roma. Francesco Totti stealing the spotlight with a 90th minute winner to make it 3-2.
Marco Giampaolo will want to make it clear that home form is crucial, and this needs to be an improvement following on from last season. Towards the end of the campaign, Sampdoria only won three of their last ten and ended last season 15th. Two points off the bottom three.
When it comes to tactics, you look back at the formation set-up in their last two matches and they seem to settle for a 4-3-1-2. Three midfielders in front of the back four, and Ricky Alvarez supporting the two front men. On away days this seems compatible, but now Alvarez has been suspended, due to his red card against Roma, it will be interesting to see if Giampolo changes things up.
One more thing, fans will hate me for this, but Sampdoria have not beaten AC Milan at home since 2010. In fact, they have gone seven games without a win at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris. No pressure then to keep up this great start to a campaign.
Their competitors on Friday night though have plummeted from their days of ruling Europe. As now AC Milan are seen as just a mid-table side who could cause a shock now and again. How times have changed for I Rossoneri.
They have tremendous quality in the likes of Carlos Bacca, who bagged a hat-trick on the opening day of the season, as well as Riccardo Montolivo and Keisuke Honda. Big names, yes, but the team just does not reach the expectation predicted by others. This is where new manager Vincenzo Montella will need to bash a few heads together.
A big factor of why they seemed to crash under the pressure last season was their away form. Picking up only six wins out of 19 matches says it all. Not good enough from a side that won the Coppa Italia and Champions league in the same season.
Don’t get me wrong, there are reasons teams fail to win on the road. In their current squad Christian Zapata, one of their best centre-backs, is injured, while Juraj Kucka is suspended. However, looking at their summer signings in Gianluca Lapadula, who they signed from Serie B, and Argentinian Jose Sosa, an attacking midfielder, they sound like fringe players. The types that will definitely get the Milan crowd on their backs if they do not perform.
Overall, I cannot see much in this match. Alvarez will be a miss for Sampdoria, but they have players who could come in and do a job. With AC Milan you just don’t know what team will turn up. In conclusion, head-to-heads play a big part in my books and this price is one I just cannot say no to on the Asian handicap betting market. That’s why I am backing Milan.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: AC Milan -0.25 @ 2.10 with Bet365
Prices correct at time of writing.