Udinese v Lazio – Dacia Arena at 19:45 live on BT Sport 3
After a solid win in my last Serie A Asian Handicap Betting preview, I will aim to get on a winning run as this week I can sense some good profit with Udinese taking on Lazio on Saturday night at Dacia Arena.
[expand title=”Read More…” swaptitle=”Hide” trigpos=”below” rel=”star-highlander” ]
Hosts Udinese have had a hot and cold start to their campaign, but mainly cold considering they sit 14th in the league on seven points after only two wins. You just have to look at their recent form to realise they are not hitting their targets having not won a game from their last three, and recently losing 1-0 away to Sassuolo.
What I can’t get my head around is their formation. What seems to be on paper a flat back four followed with a 3-1-2, yet the players are wide-men. So, incidentally it could be set up as a wide diamond. Either way, it hasn’t been working to the greatest effect, especially if a team was to play a basic 4-3-3. You’re looking at the the Little Zebras getting overrun in the midfield.
Giuseppe Iachini, however, has been busy in the transfer window bringing a number of new faces. Yes, unfortunately this means I have to bring up the sales of Piotr Zielinski and Nicol Lopez for a combined fee of £18 million, but business in has been positive. This includes a striker from Chelsea. Now, I’m a Chelsea fan and I have never heard of this guy. Stipe Perica, signed from the West London club for £3.4 million and has already scored two goals in five matches. If he keeps this up, he will be a fan favourite in no time.
One thing to expect though, at the Dacia Arena, is Udinese wanting revenge. They haven’t beaten Lazio since 2013 at home, with their last three meetings ending in two defeats and a draw. The question stands whether Udinese have enough to trouble Simone Inzaghi’s team?
The Eagles, at the moment, are looking down on Udinese. Only because they sit fifth in the Serie A table at the moment, five points off the pace. Apart from position, it has been a hit and miss campaign for the visitors too; only winning three of their six matches so far this season. Their last game ending in a 2-0 win at home to Empoli.
One big miss has been the departure of Antonio Candreva to Inter Milan for £18 million. As a result, Inzaghi has had to fill a gap by bringing in six players, including Ciro Immobile and Brazilian defender Wallace. Not big names, it has to be said. These look more like players who can help the squad push on for results, but won’t go out and grab the headlines.
It has been a struggle getting the formation down to a tee in the recent weeks as well. Since their defeat to Juventus, when Inzaghi fielded a 3-4-3, they have gone from 4-3-3 to sticking to a 3-5-2 which seems to be working for the visitors.
A negative for the club though is that four players are out injured for the Eagles, including new signing Bastos, while three players are suspended.
What to go for here? Overall, if Udinese field a 4-3-1-2 it could work, but it will be too narrow against Lazio’s five in midfield. Yet, if they played a wide three in midfield, you are looking at one against three in the middle of the park. Either way, I am backing Lazio for this one. A stronger squad, more options and they visit a ground they have only lost at on six occasions from 18 meetings. -0.25 on the Asian Handicap betting market seems about right.
Asian Handicap Betting Recommendation: Lazio -0.25 @ 2.11 with Pinnacle
Prices correct at time of writing.