ATP US Open Tennis Handicap Betting Preview – Friday 9th Sept By @DavAulak

With the US Open coming to a close, can @DavAulak bring home more profit? Check out his ATP US Open Tennis Handicap Betting Preview here!

Gael Monfils v Novak Djokovic

I has been a while since the last time there would have been a run like this in a Grand Slam. When a Semi Finalist has only won two completed matches to get into this Round. Unheard of. Yet, considering Novak Djokovic has had a couple of injury worries heading into the tournament, he has stated he is glad to have been given the help of one walkover and two retirements to aid him.

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Overall, we simply don’t know how Djokovic is feeling. There are suggestions he would not have played this tournament if it had not been a Grand Slam event. He has yet to be truly tested, but there have been signs that his serve is still a problem for the World Number 1. In my opinion, I do think Djokovic is at his most vulnerable in any Grand Slam event he has played in recent years.

While I have no doubt that whoever awaits in the Final would not be overawed by Djokovic and the challenge he brings, Gael Monfils is a different story. The Frenchman is arguably playing the best tennis of his career. Yet, he is in just a second Semi Final at this level and the first since the French Open in 2008. He has played in a Quarter Final at the Australian Open this season and it was only a couple of years ago that Monfils was 2-0 up in sets against Roger Federer before missing match points and going down in five sets in the Quarter Final.

Monfils has been serving well, but has to accept that Djokovic is going to get more balls back in play than any other player on the Tour. He can’t let that frustrate him. Monfils can take advantage of the Djokovic serve if there are still some troubles on that shot for the favourite.

That serve has been broken in every match he has played beyond one set in this tournament. So I think Monfils should be stronger than when they met in the Semi Final in Toronto. That match came after Monfils won the tournament in Washington in the week prior to Toronto, so fatigue might have played a big part in the way that match went down as the Monfils second serve was dismantled by Djokovic.

While he has spent more time on court, Monfils should be fresher for this match than in the Toronto Semi Final. He has come through with the confidence of winning every match without dropping a set. He has given Djokovic trouble when producing his absolute best on the court and Monfils is close to that level. Yet, there are doubts that Djokovic’s fitness could also play a part in this Semi Final.

Monfils looks a big price to simply win a set in this one and I will be looking for him to do so.

HANDICAP BETTING PICK: Gael Monfils +2.5 Sets @ 1.86 with Unibet 

 

Handicap Betting

Gael Monfils

Stan Wawrinka v Kei Nishikori

The second Semi Final looks like another where you can get the popcorn out. A match with plenty of big shots and drama involved. Both players have had to come through difficult Quarter Final matches and their previous matches have been competitive. I would say this is a tough one to pick between Stan Wawrinka and Kei Nishikori.

Overall, Nishikori as the favourite is a surprise. Would have guessed Wawrinka was favourite when in this Semi Final. Yes, Nishikori beat him in Cincinnati and also two years ago at the US Open. However, between those matches there was a really straightforward win for Wawrinka at the Australian Open.

The Swiss player does have the heavier groundstrokes. However, Nishikori is the more consistent player of the two which makes this a very intriguing match. If Wawrinka is feeling the ball off his racquet, as he was against Juan Martin Del Potro, he is going to be tough to stop. My lean is that he is peaking at the right time.

Two years ago we saw Nishikori dig deep until he had nothing left by the time he reached the Final. He has not been pushed outside of the match against Andy Murray, but there are no real physical issues to prevent Nishikori finding his best tennis. His win over Wawrinka in Cincinnati will boost the confidence, but I think Wawrinka is in stronger form at this moment than he was a couple of weeks ago.

I also think the Nishikori serve can be vulnerable at this level of tennis. There are enough factors to back the underdog in this one. You can’t always tell which Wawrinka will turn up day to day, but he has looked like he is more focused after coming close to exiting the tournament against Daniel Evans last week. In conclusion, I do think he can win this one outright and move into another Grand Slam Final.

The keys for Wawrinka will be to serve well and use patience on the court to curb the unforced errors that Nishikori will feed off. The Japanese player will get into the zone, but punishing the serve will put more pressure on him and Wawrinka is capable of doing that in a four set win.

HANDICAP BETTING PICK: Stan Wawrinka +1.5 Games @ 2.00 with Eastbridge Sports Betting Brokerage

 

By @DavAulak.

Prices correct at time of writing.

 

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ATP US Open Tennis Handicap Betting Preview – Wed 7th Sept By @DavAulak

A successful US Open so far for Tennis Handicap Betting expert @DavAulak and he has a couple more value bets for today’s Men’s quarter finals.

Andy Murray v Kei Nishikori

I really took my time analysing this Quarter Final match and I was surprised the layers were as keen on the Andy Murray win as I am. It was a shame that Murray was so good against Grigor Dimitrov which might have influenced that, although the bigger factor may have been the strong record Murray has against Kei Nishikori.

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This has been the tournament where Nishikori has had his best result though which encouraged me to think he can at least take a set in this one. However Nishikori has found it difficult to compete with Andy Murray which has resulted in four straight losses to the World Number 2 as well as losing three of those matches in relatively straight-forward fashion.

I can see why Murray has a dominant record against Nishikori- the British player possesses a far more threatening first serve which gives him a few more cheap points, while I think Murray is physically stronger than Nishikori. This allows him to outlast Nishikori in the longer, grinding rallies and I also believe Murray is going to work his way to many more break points which he should be taking on current form.

I did think this was a lot of games for Murray to cover if Nishikori brings in the form that took him to the Final at the US Open in 2014. However he has not been able to produce that level for long enough against Murray and I can see the latter getting over this number even if he is pushed to four sets because I think the World Number 2 will win at least one set with a 6-1 or 6-2 scoreline to start making a big dent in the number.

TENNIS HANDICAP BETTING PICK: Andy Murray -6.5 Games @ 1.74 with Unibet

 

Mens Tennis Handicap Betting Preview 070916

Kei Nishikori and Andy Murray

Juan Martin Del Potro v Stan Wawrinka

It is no surprise that the organisers have placed this men’s Quarter Final as part of the night session on Wednesday as it looked the best of the four in this year’s US Open. I might be biased as a big Juan Martin Del Potro fan, but I think most would have been so happy to see him getting back to his best, while we all know what kind of tennis Stan Wawrinka can produce when feeling the ball coming off his racquet.

Their match at Wimbledon a couple of months ago was very intriguing, but this one has a lot more attached to it with a prize of reaching the Semi Final for the winner. Del Potro has admitted he has surprised himself that he has been able to reach this Round of only his second Grand Slam back from an injury which has limited the tennis he has played in the last few years.

However this run has been less of a surprise for his fans as Del Potro looked close to his best in beating Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal at the Olympic Games. Del Potro gave Andy Murray all he could handle in the Gold Medal match and he will be feeling very confident that he can see off the two time Grand Slam winner Stan Wawrinka.

I can only foresee a match with plenty of big time tennis and winners being shot around the court, but I do think Wawrinka has invested a lot of energy to get into the Quarter Final. A niggling back issue prior to the tournament won’t have been helped and Wawrinka has played some loose service games which will lead to punishment against someone serving as well as Del Potro is.

We have all seen Wawrinka raise his game at the business end of tournaments, but I don’t know if there is enough in the tank to do that against an opponent he has lost to four times in a row including at Wimbledon a couple of months ago. The way Del Potro has been playing means his confidence is in a strong place and he did benefit from a shortened Fourth Round match and I think The Tower of Tandil moves through in three or four sets.

TENNIS HANDICAP BETTING PICK: Juan Martin Del Potro -1.5 Sets @ 2.29 with 188bet

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @DavAulak.

 

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ATP US Open Tennis Handicap Betting Preview – Tues 6th Sept By @DavAulak

Gael Monfils v Lucas Pouille

One of the best matches at the US Open was the Lucas Pouille five set win over Rafael Nadal, but the challenges keep coming as he faces compatriot Gael Monfils in the Quarter Final. It is arguable that only Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray will be feeling more confident of their chances of winning the US Open than Monfils and I am looking for him to cover a big number in this Quarter Final.

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That is no disrespect to Pouille, but I am not sure how he can recover from playing three consecutive five set matches. He is a shot-maker, but Monfils is a fine athlete who will get plenty of balls back in play and I also think Monfils possesses the more consistent serve.

At some point you have to think all of the tennis that Pouille has played will come back to haunt him. It happened at Wimbledon where Pouille had big wins over Juan Martin Del Potro and Bernard Tomic in consecutive Rounds before tiredness set in against Tomas Berdych in the Quarter Final.

The same might happen in this Quarter Final as Monfils has freshness on his side and I think he will start frustrating Pouille as this match goes on. The Pouille serve can be attacked and I will look for Monfils to wear him down in a 75, 64, 63 win.

HANDICAP BETTING PICK: Gael Monfils -6.5 Games @ 1.99 with Eastbridge Sports Betting Brokerage

 

Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

This has to be the strangest run in a Grand Slam for Novak Djokovic through his career with only two completed wins to reach the Quarter Final. Some may think he is undercooked, but I think Djokovic would have welcomed the rest and he didn’t look rusty when dismissing Kyle Edmund as easily as he did.

This time Djokovic can’t rely on an inexperienced opponent to make a slow start as Edmund did in the Fourth Round because the World Number 1 is taking on Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. This is a player that can compete with the very best players on Tour when bringing his best to the court, although I do think Tsonga will need to be better than he was in his win over Jack Sock.

There wasn’t much between Sock and Tsonga through the first three sets and someone like Djokovic is a better player who can get plenty of serves back in play. The issue about backing Djokovic is trying to figure out how the arm and elbow is feeling as that has weakened the serve and it is an area that Tsonga has to try and target especially when he is seeing second serves.

However the glaring weakness on the backhand wing means Djokovic should be able to neutralise rallies by going into that wing even though he isn’t feeling at 100%. I just haven’t been as impressed with Tsonga as the scores suggest I should be because he has been winning the big points but that is not sustainable when giving up as many opportunities on the serve and now taking on one of the best returning players of all time.

They did have a really close match at Indian Wells which was decided 7-6, 7-6 in favour of Djokovic. However it was only missed opportunities that didn’t make life easier for Djokovic and I am looking for him to come through with a 76, 63, 63 win in this one.

HANDICAP BETTING PICK: Novak Djokovic -6.5 Games @ 2.00 with Bet365

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @DavAulak.

 

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