Australia v South Africa Cricket Betting Preview – Friday 11th November By @herefordrich

Australia v South Africa, 2nd Test – Bellerive Oval at 23:30 live on BT Sport 3

The Scene

A week after South Africa’s latest Perth Test match victory, the second of three Tests between the tourists and hosts Australia gets underway on Saturday morning in Hobart.

[expand title=”Read More…” swaptitle=”Hide” trigpos=”below” rel=”star-highlander” ]

The first Test ebbed and flowed in a way that the games longest form is supposed to. At 32-4 on the first morning, South Africa scrapped their way to 242 before Australia found themselves racing along at 158-0 in reply. This soon became 203-7 and then 244 all out as the home side collapsed in a heap against a Dale Steyn-less South African attack.

At 45-2 second time around Australia remained favourites before centuries from JP Duminy and Dean Elgar led the visitors to an unassailable lead. Even a bowler light, South Africa sealed victory by a huge 177 runs late on day five to take a on-nil lead heading into Hobart and Adelaide.

Steve Smith’s Australia have now lost their last four Test matches, having been defeated three-nil in Sri Lanka last time out. Victory for stand in skipper Faf du Plessis this week could see him take over the Test stewardship full time from the injured AB de Villiers.

This is a ground that Australia have a fine record at having only ever lost one Test. That match in question was a stunner as New Zealand won in 2011 by the narrowest of seven run margins.

 

Conditions

Sadly day one is looking like it could be a washout, with a 90% chance of rain occurring throughout Saturday. Sunday isn’t looking much better before things improve considerably on days 3,4 &5. There will be strong winds present so naturally this could all change, but at the moment be careful backing a winner before the off as any rain that does arrive will only shorten that draw price.

 

The Venue

Here’s a list of sides 1st innings scores at Hobart in the last five Tests along with the winner/result of each Test in bold text

2015 1st inns –  583/4d (AUS), 2nd inns – 223 (WI) – AUS

2012 1st inns – 450/5d (AUS), 2nd inns – 336 (SL) – AUS

2011 – 1st inns – 150 (NZ), 2nd inns – 136 (AUS) – NZ

2010 – 1st inns – 519/8d (AUS), 2nd inns – 301 (PAK) – AUS

2007 1st inns – 542/5d (AUS), 2nd inns – 246 (SL) – AUS

Batting in the 1st innings of the match in this period – Average 448

Batting in the 2nd innings of the match in this period – Average 248

NOTE – (we’ve ignored 3rd and 4th match innings for the purposes of this column which has been written for each sides 1st innings of the Test)

 

Form Guide & First Inns Runs

Here are Australia‘s last ten 1st innings scores in Tests, plus result in brackets –

244 (L) 379 (L) 106 (L) 203 (L) 505 (W) 562 (W) 176/2 (D) 551/3d (W) 583/4d (W) – Average 348

Here are South Africa‘s last ten 1st innings scores in Tests, plus result in brackets –

242 (W) 481/8d (W) 263 (D) 475 (W) 313 (L) 627/7d (D) 214 (L) 121 (L) 79 (L) 214 (D) – Average 302

 

Teams

Australia will be forced into two changes; one with the bat and one with the ball. Shaun Marsh has a broken finger and will miss the rest of the series whilst Peter Siddle has a bad back. Joe Mennie or Jackson Bird will replace Siddle, whilst Joe Burns is likely to regain his place after being dropped for Marsh before the final Test in Colombo. 31 year-old batsman Callum Ferguson has also been added to the squad as Adam Voges has a hamstring niggle. Voges made a double hundred on this ground last year. Opening bat David Warner carried his bat here with an unbeaten ton during that seven run defeat to New Zealand five years ago whilst captain Smith has only ever batted once at Hobart, making just ten runs. Concerns linger over Mitchell Marsh batting at six given his Test average is a lowly 23.1 in 31 innings whilst wicket-keeper Peter Nevill showed admirable fight in Perth with knocks of 23 off 66 balls and 60* off 153 balls. Hazlewood (below) will lead the seam attack alongside Mitchell Starc and one of Mennie/Bird. Off spinner Nathan Lyon needs to bounce back from a poor showing at Perth. Match figures of 44-4-184-2 can surely be written off as a one-off, however the rain forecast might mean he won’t get many overs to redeem himself.

South Africa will also need to make a change given Dale Steyn’s shoulder injury that has ruled him out for upwards of six months. All-rounder and uncapped paceman Dwaine Pretorious joins the squad, but Steyn’s replacement is likely to be either Kyle Abbott or Morne Morkel. Vernon Philander and MOM Kagiso Rabada bowled with great heart, sharing 12 wickets during the 1st Test. What was most impressive about the runs compiled by the tourists was the fact Hashim Amla only contributed one run. Dean Elgar is becoming consistent as an opening bat with five centuries to his name now, four of which have been made at the top of the order. 37 and 32 from du Plessis at Perth suggests the skipper is in decent touch whilst Duminy (below) appears to finally be delivering the weight of runs his class has promised for many years. Wicket-keeper Quinton de Kock won this column first innings top run scorer at 8.0 at Perth, as contributions of 84 and 64 went alongside a tidy performance with the gloves. Temba Bavuma’s 1st innings of 51 was arguably worth double having come in at 32-4. His career average of 38.3 will surely only improve with each match.

 

Cricket Betting

Josh Hazelwood

Ones To Watch

Josh Hazlewood has fond memories of this venue, having taken 4-45 and 3-33 during Australia’s innings win here last year against the West Indies. Right arm seamer Hazlewood has now taken 82 wickets at 26.9 apiece during his 21 Test matches to date and is a key man in Smith’s XI.

JP Duminy made his South Africa Test debut during their tour to Australia some eight years ago. He has since only played 37 Test matches as he has been in and out the side due to failing to live up to expectations. His second innings 141 at Perth last week could just be the making of him as he approaches his 33rd birthday.

 

Runs Markets

Given the forecast, whoever bats first I recommend backing any UNDER RUNS around the 290-295 mark.

 

Top First Innings Batsman Market

Peter Nevill looked as good as any Australian bat during the first Test and if we expect batting to be hard work, it always makes sense to look down the order. He can be backed at 15.0 at Betvictor to top score here.

Faf du Plessis loves a dig in and excels in occupying when the going gets tough – there’s some value in backing him to top score for his South Africa outfit at 10.0 with Bet365.

 

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @herefordrich.

 

[/expand]

South Africa v Australia Cricket Betting Preview 30th September By @herefordrich

South Africa v Australia – ODI – SuperSport Park, Centurion at 12:30 live on Sky Sports 5

The Scene

South Africa entertain Australia in the first of five ODI’s in this series between two of crickets limited overs heavyweights.

The hosts will once again be without AB de Villiers who will undergo surgery on a troublesome elbow and is expected to be out until late October at the earliest.

[expand title=”Read More…” swaptitle=”Hide” trigpos=”below” rel=”star-highlander” ]

Steve Smith’s Australia arrive in good spirits after their ODI series win in Sri Lanka earlier this month, which extended their fine record in 50 over cricket, having now won 9 of the last 11 ODI series they’ve competed in.

Incredibly this is the first ODI series played between these sides on South African soil since 2012 – in which the tourists ran out 2-1 victors. The sides last met in a tri-series in the Caribbean earlier this summer where again, Australia beat South Africa 2-1.

Conditions

The weather is set to be warm and sunny on the Highveld with temperatures peaking around the 28c mark. There are sub 10% chance of rain, with no nasty thunderstorms predicted to get in the way of a full ODI.

The Venue

Centurion is a regularly used venue for all international cricket in South Africa. It is seen as a fine pitch for batting, which is backed up by recent scores. Note the 318 was made by England earlier this year, in which South Africa chased this score with relative ease. Here is a list of recent scores in ODI matches on this ground –

318, 304, 361, 301, 179, 191 – Average 275

First Innings Runs

South Africa have batted first in eight completed ODI’s since the start of their India tour last year. Here is a list of their scores when batting first –

354, 343, 189, 188, 262, 438, 270, 303 – Average 292

And here are Australia’s last eight scores when batting first in ODI’s –

270, 265, 288, 330, 348, 299, 309, 305 – Average 301

 

Cricket Betting

Imran Tahir

Teams

South Africa will again be led by Faf du Plessis in the absence of de Villiers. The stand in skipper will have his big names back after they were rested for last weeks rout of Ireland.

Dale Steyn and Imran Tahir return with the ball whilst Hashim Amla should return to open the batting. This could mean debutant century maker Temba Bavuma could drop down the order as Amla opens up with Quinton de Kock. de Kock has ten hundreds in just 64 ODI’s whilst Amla has a remarkable 23 in 134 ODI knocks.

Middle order left handed bats David Miller and JP Duminy are both capable of powerful lower order contributions with career SR’s of 99 and 83 to their names respectively. Farhaan Behardien provides a crucial link to the lower middle order with an average of 30 and a SR in the 90’s, whilst seamer Andile Phehlukwayo could get another try despite going wicket-less on debut against Ireland. Tahir (below) will provide high class leg spin whilst Dale Steyn and Kyle Abbott are likely to lead a Morne Morkel-less home pace attack.

Steve Smith returned against Ireland having been rested at the end of the Sri Lanka ODI series win. David Warner led the side in Smith’s absence and finally found some form in the final ODI, making 106 in the Pallekele victory having previously struggled to buy a run all tour. A blistering 48 off 30 balls against Ireland suggested Warner is in fine form and will be a danger to the home side.

Usman Khwaja opened ahead of Aaron Finch in that win against the Irish and is likely to drop down the order despite an unbeaten 82 in the run chase. George Bailey had a fine series in Sri Lanka, posting a best score of 90 and an average of 67, whilst wicket-keeper bat Matthew Wade seems to be growing at this level, scoring 155 runs at a SR of 83 in Sri Lanka on what were tricky, slow surfaces.

Front line seamers Mitch Starc and Josh Hazlewood sit out this series, with all-rounders John Hastings and Mitch Marsh leading the attack in regards international experience. Scott Boland has 11 ODI’s under his belt but has a best return of just 2/42 whilst Daniel Worral debuted against the Irish and is likely to get another gig here at Centurion.

Ones to Watch

37 year-old leg spinner Imran Tahir is one of the games great characters. He also holds a mightily impressive ODI record for South Africa, having netted 105 wickets in 60 matches. An average of 23 a wicket is eye-catching, but an economy rate of 4.6 in the modern era is simply outstanding. His overs are always crucial as wickets in the middle overs tend to stop sides from getting those 330+ scores that are becoming the norm in this format.

Australia have a leg spin bowler of their own in Adam Zampa that is already building an impressive ODI career record. In 13 ODI matches, the New South Wales tweaker has taken 25 scalps at an average of 22. His economy is also under 5 runs per over and arrives fresh from taking 9 wickets in the Sri Lanka series win. His battle with Tahir could be crucial in deciding the outcome of the series.

Runs Markets

Whichever side bat first I recommend backing any OVER RUNS around the 305-310 mark.

Top Batsman Market

Hashim Amla only averages 30 against Australia in 20 ODI knocks. However, in 11 matches on this ground he has 4 centuries and an average of 69. Back him at 4.33 to top score for South Africa.

No prizes for imagination with this Australia top batsman pick either – David Warner is a hot/cold batsman and appears to be heating up into another warm period of batting form – he can be backed at 4.0 to top score for Steve Smith’s side.

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @herefordrich.

 

[/expand]

Sri Lanka v Australia Cricket Betting Preview – Sunday 4th September By @herefordrich

Sri Lanka v Australia, 5th ODI – Sunday 4th September at Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium 

The Scene

With a double victory in Dambulla, the touring Australia side sealed a much needed ODI series win earlier this week. With an unassailable 3-1 lead with one to play, the hosts will be keen to ensure they don’t lose any more momentum after the Test series white wash before next weeks two t20 internationals that conclude the tour. Sri Lanka will likely be missing skipper Angelo Mathews from this fixture who returned to the crease after retiring hurt in Wednesday’s defeat – expect in form Dinesh Chandimal to stand in as captain – meaning both Steve Smith and Mathews who started the series in charge will be absent come the conclusion.

[expand title=”Read More…” swaptitle=”Hide” trigpos=”below” rel=”star-highlander” ]

Conditions

Palekelle, or Kandy, is high up in the Sri Lankan hills and has a tropical climate that can bring rain throughout the year. Luckily early morning showers should have passed through before this day-night affair begins.

The Venue

Sri Lanka have won five of the last six ODI’s here whilst Australia won their only ODI at Pallekele, played back in 2011.

Here is a list of recent first innings scores made at Pallekele going back to November 2012, not including two rain reduced innings –

287, 292, 239, 267, 238, 223, 302, 250 – Average 262

First Innings Runs

Here is a list of the last eight scores Sri Lanka have registered when batting first in ODI’s –

212, 226, 288, 227, 305, 248, 257, 286 – Average 256

And here are Australia’s last eight scores when batting first in ODI’s –

270, 265, 288, 330, 348, 299, 309, 305 – Average 301

Teams

The revolving door that is Sri Lanka‘s opening batsmen continued in Dambulla, with 18-year-old Avishka Fernando shoved out of the door to continue the run of failures inflicted by Mitch Starc on this tour – a duck on debut was not a surprise. Dhananjaya de Silva played well in just his 5th ODI, scoring 76 of his sides 212 run total. Kusal Mendis looks to have world-class potential and averages over 35 in the series having scored his runs at a SR of 81. The three middle order Perera’s – Kusal, Thisara and Dilruwan – have all struggled so far. A combined 177 runs in 12 innings is a reflection on the hosts reliance on Kusal Mendis, Chandimal (below) and Mathews. The spin dominated bowling attack has shown glimpses of what it can do, but needs a slow, turning surface to be effective. Dilruwan has chipped in with six wickets whilst left armer Amila Aponso has seven victims at 21 apiece and a economy rate of sub four an over.

With Australia winning the series in Dambulla, we could see changes to the starting XI before the t20’s begin. The tourists have chopped-and-changed throughout the ODI’s having fielded 16 players so far. Stand in skipper Dave Warner is hopelessly out of touch, a top score of 19 is the polar opposite to opening partner Aaron Finch who bludgeoned a 19 ball half-century in the last ODI. Matthew Wade has enjoyed an elevated role up the order and averages 50 in the series whilst fellow left handed Travis Head has shown signs of adapting to international cricket with 117 runs. Mitch Starc has as ever bowled brilliantly, nine wickets at an average of 19 matches what is turning into a mighty fine ODI career record. All-rounders John Hastings and James Faulkner have shared 17 wickets bowling cutters and slower balls with great affect, whilst leg-spinner Adam Zampa’s seven victims at 20 apiece is a promising return.

Ones to Watch

Sri Lanka wicket-keeper batsman Dinesh Chandimal is in a rich vein of form in ODI cricket. He has passed 37 in ten of his last 12 innings, including scoring two centuries and five half-centuries. Likely to be leading the side in this fixture, he will no doubt be keen to ensure his fine form continues.

Gritty – that is the polite word to describe George Bailey‘s batting technique. An unbeaten 90 in the previous ODI saw his Australia side comfortably home and took his career average up to a more than handy 42.5 to go with a SR of 85.

 

AUS Bailey

George Bailey

Runs Markets

If Sri Lanka bat first, I recommend taking any UNDER RUNS around the 247-250 mark.

If Australia bat first, I recommend taking any UNDER RUNS around the 277-280 mark.

 

Top Batsman Market

This looks a straight shoot out between Chandimal and Kusal Mendis – let us back the later at 5.0 @ Eastbridge Sports Betting Brokerage to top score for Sri Lanka.

How can Warner and Aaron Finch both be the same price? Let us take the in form Finch to top score for Australia at 4.5 @ Eastbridge Sports Betting Brokerage.

 

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @herefordrich.

 

[/expand]