Australia v South Africa Cricket Betting Preview – Friday 11th November By @herefordrich

Australia v South Africa, 2nd Test – Bellerive Oval at 23:30 live on BT Sport 3

The Scene

A week after South Africa’s latest Perth Test match victory, the second of three Tests between the tourists and hosts Australia gets underway on Saturday morning in Hobart.

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The first Test ebbed and flowed in a way that the games longest form is supposed to. At 32-4 on the first morning, South Africa scrapped their way to 242 before Australia found themselves racing along at 158-0 in reply. This soon became 203-7 and then 244 all out as the home side collapsed in a heap against a Dale Steyn-less South African attack.

At 45-2 second time around Australia remained favourites before centuries from JP Duminy and Dean Elgar led the visitors to an unassailable lead. Even a bowler light, South Africa sealed victory by a huge 177 runs late on day five to take a on-nil lead heading into Hobart and Adelaide.

Steve Smith’s Australia have now lost their last four Test matches, having been defeated three-nil in Sri Lanka last time out. Victory for stand in skipper Faf du Plessis this week could see him take over the Test stewardship full time from the injured AB de Villiers.

This is a ground that Australia have a fine record at having only ever lost one Test. That match in question was a stunner as New Zealand won in 2011 by the narrowest of seven run margins.

 

Conditions

Sadly day one is looking like it could be a washout, with a 90% chance of rain occurring throughout Saturday. Sunday isn’t looking much better before things improve considerably on days 3,4 &5. There will be strong winds present so naturally this could all change, but at the moment be careful backing a winner before the off as any rain that does arrive will only shorten that draw price.

 

The Venue

Here’s a list of sides 1st innings scores at Hobart in the last five Tests along with the winner/result of each Test in bold text

2015 1st inns –  583/4d (AUS), 2nd inns – 223 (WI) – AUS

2012 1st inns – 450/5d (AUS), 2nd inns – 336 (SL) – AUS

2011 – 1st inns – 150 (NZ), 2nd inns – 136 (AUS) – NZ

2010 – 1st inns – 519/8d (AUS), 2nd inns – 301 (PAK) – AUS

2007 1st inns – 542/5d (AUS), 2nd inns – 246 (SL) – AUS

Batting in the 1st innings of the match in this period – Average 448

Batting in the 2nd innings of the match in this period – Average 248

NOTE – (we’ve ignored 3rd and 4th match innings for the purposes of this column which has been written for each sides 1st innings of the Test)

 

Form Guide & First Inns Runs

Here are Australia‘s last ten 1st innings scores in Tests, plus result in brackets –

244 (L) 379 (L) 106 (L) 203 (L) 505 (W) 562 (W) 176/2 (D) 551/3d (W) 583/4d (W) – Average 348

Here are South Africa‘s last ten 1st innings scores in Tests, plus result in brackets –

242 (W) 481/8d (W) 263 (D) 475 (W) 313 (L) 627/7d (D) 214 (L) 121 (L) 79 (L) 214 (D) – Average 302

 

Teams

Australia will be forced into two changes; one with the bat and one with the ball. Shaun Marsh has a broken finger and will miss the rest of the series whilst Peter Siddle has a bad back. Joe Mennie or Jackson Bird will replace Siddle, whilst Joe Burns is likely to regain his place after being dropped for Marsh before the final Test in Colombo. 31 year-old batsman Callum Ferguson has also been added to the squad as Adam Voges has a hamstring niggle. Voges made a double hundred on this ground last year. Opening bat David Warner carried his bat here with an unbeaten ton during that seven run defeat to New Zealand five years ago whilst captain Smith has only ever batted once at Hobart, making just ten runs. Concerns linger over Mitchell Marsh batting at six given his Test average is a lowly 23.1 in 31 innings whilst wicket-keeper Peter Nevill showed admirable fight in Perth with knocks of 23 off 66 balls and 60* off 153 balls. Hazlewood (below) will lead the seam attack alongside Mitchell Starc and one of Mennie/Bird. Off spinner Nathan Lyon needs to bounce back from a poor showing at Perth. Match figures of 44-4-184-2 can surely be written off as a one-off, however the rain forecast might mean he won’t get many overs to redeem himself.

South Africa will also need to make a change given Dale Steyn’s shoulder injury that has ruled him out for upwards of six months. All-rounder and uncapped paceman Dwaine Pretorious joins the squad, but Steyn’s replacement is likely to be either Kyle Abbott or Morne Morkel. Vernon Philander and MOM Kagiso Rabada bowled with great heart, sharing 12 wickets during the 1st Test. What was most impressive about the runs compiled by the tourists was the fact Hashim Amla only contributed one run. Dean Elgar is becoming consistent as an opening bat with five centuries to his name now, four of which have been made at the top of the order. 37 and 32 from du Plessis at Perth suggests the skipper is in decent touch whilst Duminy (below) appears to finally be delivering the weight of runs his class has promised for many years. Wicket-keeper Quinton de Kock won this column first innings top run scorer at 8.0 at Perth, as contributions of 84 and 64 went alongside a tidy performance with the gloves. Temba Bavuma’s 1st innings of 51 was arguably worth double having come in at 32-4. His career average of 38.3 will surely only improve with each match.

 

Cricket Betting

Josh Hazelwood

Ones To Watch

Josh Hazlewood has fond memories of this venue, having taken 4-45 and 3-33 during Australia’s innings win here last year against the West Indies. Right arm seamer Hazlewood has now taken 82 wickets at 26.9 apiece during his 21 Test matches to date and is a key man in Smith’s XI.

JP Duminy made his South Africa Test debut during their tour to Australia some eight years ago. He has since only played 37 Test matches as he has been in and out the side due to failing to live up to expectations. His second innings 141 at Perth last week could just be the making of him as he approaches his 33rd birthday.

 

Runs Markets

Given the forecast, whoever bats first I recommend backing any UNDER RUNS around the 290-295 mark.

 

Top First Innings Batsman Market

Peter Nevill looked as good as any Australian bat during the first Test and if we expect batting to be hard work, it always makes sense to look down the order. He can be backed at 15.0 at Betvictor to top score here.

Faf du Plessis loves a dig in and excels in occupying when the going gets tough – there’s some value in backing him to top score for his South Africa outfit at 10.0 with Bet365.

 

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @herefordrich.

 

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South Africa v Australia Cricket Betting Preview 30th September By @herefordrich

South Africa v Australia – ODI – SuperSport Park, Centurion at 12:30 live on Sky Sports 5

The Scene

South Africa entertain Australia in the first of five ODI’s in this series between two of crickets limited overs heavyweights.

The hosts will once again be without AB de Villiers who will undergo surgery on a troublesome elbow and is expected to be out until late October at the earliest.

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Steve Smith’s Australia arrive in good spirits after their ODI series win in Sri Lanka earlier this month, which extended their fine record in 50 over cricket, having now won 9 of the last 11 ODI series they’ve competed in.

Incredibly this is the first ODI series played between these sides on South African soil since 2012 – in which the tourists ran out 2-1 victors. The sides last met in a tri-series in the Caribbean earlier this summer where again, Australia beat South Africa 2-1.

Conditions

The weather is set to be warm and sunny on the Highveld with temperatures peaking around the 28c mark. There are sub 10% chance of rain, with no nasty thunderstorms predicted to get in the way of a full ODI.

The Venue

Centurion is a regularly used venue for all international cricket in South Africa. It is seen as a fine pitch for batting, which is backed up by recent scores. Note the 318 was made by England earlier this year, in which South Africa chased this score with relative ease. Here is a list of recent scores in ODI matches on this ground –

318, 304, 361, 301, 179, 191 – Average 275

First Innings Runs

South Africa have batted first in eight completed ODI’s since the start of their India tour last year. Here is a list of their scores when batting first –

354, 343, 189, 188, 262, 438, 270, 303 – Average 292

And here are Australia’s last eight scores when batting first in ODI’s –

270, 265, 288, 330, 348, 299, 309, 305 – Average 301

 

Cricket Betting

Imran Tahir

Teams

South Africa will again be led by Faf du Plessis in the absence of de Villiers. The stand in skipper will have his big names back after they were rested for last weeks rout of Ireland.

Dale Steyn and Imran Tahir return with the ball whilst Hashim Amla should return to open the batting. This could mean debutant century maker Temba Bavuma could drop down the order as Amla opens up with Quinton de Kock. de Kock has ten hundreds in just 64 ODI’s whilst Amla has a remarkable 23 in 134 ODI knocks.

Middle order left handed bats David Miller and JP Duminy are both capable of powerful lower order contributions with career SR’s of 99 and 83 to their names respectively. Farhaan Behardien provides a crucial link to the lower middle order with an average of 30 and a SR in the 90’s, whilst seamer Andile Phehlukwayo could get another try despite going wicket-less on debut against Ireland. Tahir (below) will provide high class leg spin whilst Dale Steyn and Kyle Abbott are likely to lead a Morne Morkel-less home pace attack.

Steve Smith returned against Ireland having been rested at the end of the Sri Lanka ODI series win. David Warner led the side in Smith’s absence and finally found some form in the final ODI, making 106 in the Pallekele victory having previously struggled to buy a run all tour. A blistering 48 off 30 balls against Ireland suggested Warner is in fine form and will be a danger to the home side.

Usman Khwaja opened ahead of Aaron Finch in that win against the Irish and is likely to drop down the order despite an unbeaten 82 in the run chase. George Bailey had a fine series in Sri Lanka, posting a best score of 90 and an average of 67, whilst wicket-keeper bat Matthew Wade seems to be growing at this level, scoring 155 runs at a SR of 83 in Sri Lanka on what were tricky, slow surfaces.

Front line seamers Mitch Starc and Josh Hazlewood sit out this series, with all-rounders John Hastings and Mitch Marsh leading the attack in regards international experience. Scott Boland has 11 ODI’s under his belt but has a best return of just 2/42 whilst Daniel Worral debuted against the Irish and is likely to get another gig here at Centurion.

Ones to Watch

37 year-old leg spinner Imran Tahir is one of the games great characters. He also holds a mightily impressive ODI record for South Africa, having netted 105 wickets in 60 matches. An average of 23 a wicket is eye-catching, but an economy rate of 4.6 in the modern era is simply outstanding. His overs are always crucial as wickets in the middle overs tend to stop sides from getting those 330+ scores that are becoming the norm in this format.

Australia have a leg spin bowler of their own in Adam Zampa that is already building an impressive ODI career record. In 13 ODI matches, the New South Wales tweaker has taken 25 scalps at an average of 22. His economy is also under 5 runs per over and arrives fresh from taking 9 wickets in the Sri Lanka series win. His battle with Tahir could be crucial in deciding the outcome of the series.

Runs Markets

Whichever side bat first I recommend backing any OVER RUNS around the 305-310 mark.

Top Batsman Market

Hashim Amla only averages 30 against Australia in 20 ODI knocks. However, in 11 matches on this ground he has 4 centuries and an average of 69. Back him at 4.33 to top score for South Africa.

No prizes for imagination with this Australia top batsman pick either – David Warner is a hot/cold batsman and appears to be heating up into another warm period of batting form – he can be backed at 4.0 to top score for Steve Smith’s side.

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @herefordrich.

 

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South Africa v Ireland Cricket Betting Preview – Sunday 25th Sept By @herefordrich

South Africa v Ireland – ODI – Willowmoore Park, Benoni at 09:00 live on Sky Sports 2

The Scene

Ireland have pleaded with the ICC for the best part of a decade to be given more fixtures against the major, full playing nations of world cricket. The odd ODI here and there at home against neighbours England and the side that happens to be touring the UK each summer isn’t really enough though to push home the case of the plucky Irish, who have upset the likes of Pakistan, England and West Indies in the last three ODI World Cups. Small credit is deserved to South Africa and fellow touring side, Australia, who have agreed to each play Ireland in an official ODI in Benoni this week.

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South Africa play their first ODI since failing to qualify for the tri-series final staged in the West Indies where Australia again made up the trio. The Ireland team’s last match saw them go all out for 82 at home to a Pakistan side who had racked up 337. Previously a 2-2 draw at home to fellow Associate giants Afghanistan had followed a 2-0 defeat to Sri Lanka – in which Ireland lost heavily – this despite passing 200 in each unsuccessful run chase.

Conditions

Sunshine and temperatures in the mid-twenties will welcome the two sides in Benoni. A sub 5% chance of showers will be welcome news for the Irish who often see bad weather impact what little matches they are awarded at home against the major nations.

The Venue

Willowmoore Park, Benoni has hosted 19 ODI’s since 1997, with the majority played out between Associate nations such as Canada, Afghanistan, Scotland and Ireland.

Here is a list of the last seven ODI scores at Benoni –

205, 399, 295, 295, 252, 220, 232 – Average 271

First Innings Runs

South Africa have batted first in seven completed ODI’s since the start of their India tour last year. Here is a list of their scores when batting first –

343, 189, 188, 262, 438, 270, 303 – Average 284

Ireland have batted first in three completed ODI’s since the end of the 2015 Cricket World Cup. Here are there scores when batting first –

265, 268, 219 – Average 250

Teams

With Hashim Amla rested for the Ireland ODI and Rillee Rossouw injured, it is hard to predict who will be de Kock’s (below) opening partner. David Miller or returning skipper AB de Villiers are the two most likely to get the gig before Amla returns for the Australia matches that follow. Captain de Villiers had to sit out the Test win against New Zealand and returns to take back the reigns from Faf du Plessis, who averages over 40 in his 91 ODI’s.

Temba Bavuma is likely to get his first try in coloured clothing for South Africa after 11 Tests – the talented middle order bat made 117 for the Lions in his last List A match several weeks ago. All-rounder Dwaine Pretorius looks set for a debut after a string of matches for South Africa A and is in possession of an impressive domestic one day career. In 39 matches he averages 37 with the bat and 24 with the ball. Kagiso Rabada and Wayne Parnell are likely to lead the seam attack with the former having taken a brilliant 37 wickets at an average of 21 in his ODI career so far. The final spot will either go to spinner Aaron Phangiso or debutant quick Andile Phehlukwayo.

Ireland will be led by William Porterfield who will be keen to rediscover the form which saw him score a World Cup ton in Adelaide against Pakistan. Since then he’s only passed 25 once in 13 innings, dismissed for single figures on 7 occasions. The skipper could slide up the order as Ed Joyce is missing in action – expect Paul Stirling to give it a whack upfront as usual – the Middlesex man has a SR of 92 in his 69 ODI’s. Niall and Kevin O’Brien are two brothers with very different, but effective batting styles. Kevin has now played over 100 matches for Ireland in this format and averages 31 with bat and ball. Wicket-keeper Gary Wilson has just left Surrey for Derbyshire and is likely to play as a batsman only here with Niall O’Brien wearing the gloves.

Wilson is a better player than his ODI average of 25 and SR of 72 suggests. All-rounder Andy McBrine has a top score of 79 alongside 14 career wickets in his 16 matches whilst the seam attack will have to do without quick Boyd Rankin. Tim Murtagh will play for Middlesex  in their county championship finale, before joining the squad on the even of the match. The 35 year-old canny seamer has 25 wickets in this format and an economy of 4.5 per over. Barry McCarthy took 4-62 in the Dublin defeat to Pakistan last month – the only ray of light in what was a rare poor day for Porterfield’s street wise Irish side.

Ones to Watch

Fresh from getting married in Mauritius last week, Quinton de Kock will continue to open the batting for South Africa in ODI cricket. The wicket-keeper bat has scored a remarkable 10 centuries in just 63 matches in this format for his country and should enjoy the early season conditions in Benoni.

To contain sides at the death in ODI cricket you need wickets in that middle period. Slow-left-arm spin from George Dockrell will be crucial to Ireland‘s hopes in the field of limiting any end of innings chaos from the hosts. A career spanning 53 matches in this format has seen a hugely impressive economy rate of just 4.4 runs per over come of his bowling.

 

Cricket Betting

Quinton de Kock

Runs Markets

If South Africa bat first I recommend backing any OVER RUNS around the 295-300 mark.

If Ireland bat first I recommend backing any UNDER RUNS around the 245-250 mark.

 

Top Batsman Market

de Kock looks too short at 3.25 despite his magic ODI record. Instead let us take a punt on David Miller who (might) open the batting for South Africa. Back him at 7.0.

Niall O’Brien looks the stand out value to top score for Ireland at 6.50.

 

Prices correct at time of writing.

By @herefordrich.

 

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